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Random Thoughts

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Looking within is always the hardest view.

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  • Making Hays while the sun shines? Chatter on the Street is that Don Hays, who has been a staunch bull, is raising 10% cash.

  • "With options this cheap I have a large bet on. The odds are very good. It doesn't mean I will make money, it means that for the risk of losing a little I can make a lot. It may not be good to bet against the crowd if you don't get "odds." With odds like these, it is time for me to bet against the crowd." John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • "See" the XAU as it giggles higher through XAU 150. That's acne, folks, and it's a potentially positive technical stretch for the metal heads.

  • Looking within is always the hardest view.

  • Note the VXO as it giggles 11% higher. I think this is right as I anticipate a much more volatile September.

  • What's singular for a double entendre?

  • Hump Day tea leaves? Breadth is stubbornly bunk (4:1 negative) and the homies (HGX -2%), semis (SOX -1.6%) biotech (BTK -2%), pharma (DRG -1%) and the Russell (-1.3% and sitting on its 200-day) give pause to the bovine cause.

  • How great is Costa Rica? Pretty great. I dug surfing, although it's a lot harder than it looks. And hiking is tremendous, save the moment I turned around to find myself covered in termites.

  • Achtung, Baby? The German DAX is off 1.2% as we schnitzel through another day.

  • I'm sans costume at present but, as a function of some "left for dead" downside premium, I'll get shorter if and when Boo turns the screws. And yes, as a function of balance, I've got some long-side situations as well. The truth is, the S&P is precisely where it was when I left (on Thursday).

  • I plan to buy more Golden Star (GSS) anywhere near $3. Not advice, just sharing my eyes as I try to practice proactive patience.

  • "Back in June, as the decline was ending, we noted that sentiment was in 'extreme pessimism' mode. Since then, and 90 S&P points later, it should come as no surprise that we have crawled out of pessimism territory and into 'high neutral,' but not 'extreme optimism.' So we are in neutral as well after having cut exposure a little last week in equities. The $64,000 question is whether we will get to 'extreme optimism' before topping. I would note the following: Bull markets tend to top at those levels while bear markets tend to top more in neutral mode. So not only is the absolute level important but so it is from a relative perspective to help us determine if stocks are experiencing a more important 'change of character.'" Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz

  • Answer I really wanna know: Is that (bullish) reverse dandruff in the NDX?

  • Perhaps I'm early--who me?--but I think an inability of the CRB to regain that 5-year trendline may be an ominous equity sign. This you know but it bears repeating as alotta folks were sunning buns these last few weeks.

  • To answer the age old question of "Why did the Sloth cross the road?" I thought some Costa Rican visualization might help...



R.P.

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position in gss, jpm, metals, financials, iwm
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