No More Monkey Business!
I sincerely hope Minyans had a fantastic holiday and that you're ready for the final push to year-end.
Good morning and welcome back to the Minyanville track. With Labor Day gone and summer a dream, it's time to map out a new minxy scheme. I've been out of pocket for a few sessions as I took a mindful journey to Costa Rica to celebrate my fiancé's 30th birthday. We don't do "plugs" in the 'Ville very often but I would be remiss if I didn't sing the praises of the Gaia Hotel & Reserve in Manuel Antonio. If you're looking to get away and reconnect with nature, this is the spot for you. Top notch, pristine service and half the price of the next best resort in the country. You can't beat that.
Yesterday, as I reluctantly prepared to leave, I spent some time chatting with the owner, a gentleman by the name of Boris. He's an interesting cat, having acted as a consultant to the board of Exxon Mobil before serving sixteen years on the National Security Council (focusing on oil). We spoke of the growing trend of nationalization, one of my Five Themes for the Next Five Years, along with the notion that foreigners are growing increasingly perturbed with our current administration. I mentioned that the majority of U.S debt is in the hands of foreigners and, before I could finish, he opined that the dollar would be in dire straights if only it wouldn't capsize the global marketplace in doing so. One interesting side bar, he was cocksure that crude would remain dollar denominated for the foreseeable future, an assertion I'm not completely comfortable with.
As I edge from the red-eye into my trading saddle I thought I would defer to some random musings before jumping to the Buzz. I sincerely hope Minyans had a fantastic holiday and that you're ready for the final push to year-end. I opined a few weeks ago that I felt that September was gonna be a volatile affair and that vibe continues to resonate. I'll begin the spin with relatively flat deltas (sans costumes), some chunky gamma (lotsa options) and a balanced mindset.
On the back of my five themes, I offered a sixth sense on another potential pocket of liquidity.
It's a complicated world out there and, on the back of last week's CNBC cameo, I've gotten a few inquiries of clarification. I attempted to address some of them here so, if you've got an interest, it may be worth a gander.
Sticking with the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" theme, please note the dollar as it grinds higher this morning.
Quack Count? We like these sorta ducks lining up, especially when it benefits the Special Olympics. Please take a moment to help Minyanville help make a difference.
Debka is reporting that the buildup of European naval strength on Lebanon's shores is out-sized vs. their stated mission of providing a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah and opined that it might be a precursor of an escalation, one that finds the US and Israel on one side and Iran and Syria on the other. They are pointing to the greatest sea and air armada
Europe has ever assembled at any point on earth since WWII.
The CRB, our proxy of all things liquidity, remains slightly below the five year trendline. Please keep an eye on this Minyans--if it's gonna matter, it's gonna matter big.
While I kept Boo on a tight leash last week, BKX 114 (all-time high) remains an intuitive (loose grip) "stop loss" for any ursine try.
Have a great day, Minyans, and let's mount this Hump with some jingle in our jeans and a smile on our puss!
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