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Random Thoughts


Happy Birthday V!

  • The banks wrestle with an important level.

  • A week ago today, Hoofy defined his risk (NDX 1550) and dug in on the long side. Today, with the piggies approaching a major resistance level (BKX 100), Boo has a similar opportunity to map out a clearly defined risk/reward. It hasn't paid to fade the internals but he's a bear and, as such, is trying to view the recent jig as an opportunity.

  • Alternative energy?

  • "One of the nation's major cities is "off-line" for the foreseeable future and gasoline is $3.00/gallon. Consequently, the downside risks to the economy have increased. We think investors are ignoring the potential economic impact of the situation, as well as the potential inflationary impact of the rebuild. Regrettably, the longer New Orleans "sits" the greater the risk to the economy. Indeed, the grinch that stole Christmas." -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James.

  • This explains the size of my stomach!

  • "Under the hood, very few net new buy signals are showing up so far today. On the NYSE there are no net new buy signals. The appearance of this move suggests a magnitude and significance of bullishness far greater than what the contextual indicators are assigning to it." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • Our humble mission to help the Katrina relief efforts continues to gain momentum. This morning, an anonymous Minyan pledged $10,000 to the cause, bringing our five day total close to $35,000. Every little bit helps and each gesture is appreciated as we band together and do our part. Thank you Minyans. Thank you very, very much.

  • It's not important to play every trade. It's only important to win the ones you choose to play.

  • A very happy and healthy birthday to Minyan Vanessa. Thanks for all you do and for who you are!

  • Alotta folks are a bit spun around regarding the path of the market on the back of Katrina. That has made the Minx more reactive than usual as we edge into the month of September. Respect, Mon, but never defer to the price action-that's a recipe for whippage and the slayer of lost sheep.

  • Snaps to Jerry Rice on playing the game the way it's supposed to be played.

  • As of this morning, the odds that the Fed will again hike rates at its September 20 meeting were at 56% (vs. 90% a week ago) and odds of a November 1 hike dipped to 20% (vs. 100%) (Courtesy of UBS)

  • Crude (-2%) continues to drip lower as it starts to distance itself from $70/brl. '05 high? Me thinks so. Ramifications for the equity tape? It's difficult to say, given the lack of historical correlation. While energy is clearly a focus in the mainstream media, however, I will again caution Minyans against basing equity decisions purely on this variable.

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