From our family to yours, may peace be with you!
"You know, I can't believe this, Wyatt. I'm so disappointed in us. I mean, all our lives we've been saying how great it would be if we went to parties, right? And now it's our party and we're in the john. We're in the john!"
--Garry Wallace, Weird Science
Where wolf? THERE wolf! After six months of false alarms, Boo's respect is all but wrecked. It's lonely in the cave as the recent acne has forced the hand of the (disciplined) technicians. That's not to say they're wrong (discipline always trumps conviction) but it's clear that plenty of towels were tossed this week. While that's likely the reason for the recent traction, it's also the cause for the current pause.
The tape got decidedly fugly after my last post as Cisco (CSCO:NAS) led the market red. The semis have joined the downside ride and the Minx is sledding towards the looking glass (S&P 1015). We've seen these reversals before and they've proved to be one day wonders. Indeed, almost everyone agrees that this is a simple pause that refreshes and that, in and of itself, is worth a mention.
Away from equities, fixed income is sprinting higher, the greenback is getting smoked and gold continues to shine. It's relatively quiet next week although Bear Stearns will host a healthcare conference, Lehman has a financial services gig, Oracle (ORCL:NASD) reports earnings and Beeks will sneak in a few peeks. With the fundies quiet, psychology and technicals should continue to dictate the near-term price action.
There's been a lot of talk recently regarding our current juncture and some high profile opinion changes. The capitulation vs. adaptation discussion has been around as long as trading itself and the answers are never as obvious as they seem. I will only offer that those lines of distinction differ for each individual and you've gotta find what works for you. Identify a horizon, establish risk parameters, allow for a margin of error and, above all else, think positive.
What do I think here? I think I'm tired--this business wears on you--but I also think there has to be (at the very least) a pretty grizzly scare in the not too distant future. I remember (way back) when the Minx was sucking sludge and it looked like the end of the world. At the time, the last thing on the collective mindset were seas of green. We're at the mirror image now (we've been there for a while) and just because the warning signs haven't mattered, that doesn't mean they've gone away.
One step at a time, my friends, as we trudge our way through the home stretch. We'll be kickin' off our animated auction next week and the critters are beside themselves with excitement! Our vision of philanthropic education exists because of Minyans like YOU so, regardless of that bottom line, you should be proud. At the end of the day, success is never measured by the size of one's wallet.
Have a peaceful weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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