Late Friday Thought
I loved Jason's piece earlier today on his change of heart. Outlining his view took courage and was well documented. Right or wrong, what I love to see is research pieces that are well thought out. What folks have to understand is that we deal in time frames that fluctuate, and the hardest thing to do in the public forum is change. There is no question in my mind that when Jason hit the "enter" key to publish the piece to the site he was thinking it was a near-term "contra-signal." I often think the same thing of myself when I put out a controversial piece (I have been wrong enough times to have experience there).
The issue here as I read it in the piece wasn't that the market couldn't pull back - but what to do on a pull back given a more intermediate-term view. I encourage all of you to define it for yourself when declaring Hoofy or Boo. To outline how crazy it can be...
Here is an example just using the S&P 500. On a six month chart it is in an uptrend. On a two year chart, it formed a bottom and is now moving dramatically off that bottom trading range (800-950). On a five year chart, the SPX is still in a very well defined downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
As it relates to contrarian signals...when Jason and I start getting email saying, "what took you so long...this thing is going higher bigtime!" - then optimism will be the consensus view. That isn't the case right now. As I said, because he agrees with me intermediate-term isn't important. The fact that he documented himself well and put the piece out is the type of stuff that makes Minyanville different.
It isn't about right or wrong...we don't do that here...it is about the how a thought process is developed.
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