A couple of thoughts
I have a couple of thoughts here:
1) Toddo left out a key word in his reference to Daisy and I. That word is "again." Also, I have been wrong in the past enough to know that I am good at it...so the pride comes from being a Minyan and working with the folks here on the site!
2) The S&P 500 (SPX) has been up 6 months in a row. I went back to check prior occurrences and found that it was rare. 4/96, 5/95, 2/93, 4/91, 3/86, 1/83, 9/80, 6/75, 4/71. You will notice that none of those dates coincided with major market tops. Initial pain only came in the two '70's instances and that pain was ultimately followed with gain.
3) In addition, as you know, the way I do research is to try to prove myself wrong vs. try to find reasons I am right. In that vein, my trusty right arm Mike just alerted me to the fact that ZERO stocks in the (NASDAQ 100) NDX are in oversold territory on the daily 14-period stochastic reading. That has only happened once over the past two years (and there have been a lot of nice rallies during that time frame).
Obviously, I was looking at it thinking...wow that is extreme and is probably a good sell signal. The only other zero reading was March 20th, 21st & 24th. There was a 5% pullback from the initial zero day reading and then the ramp to current levels. The next closest reading was 1% oversold on October 16, 2001. That instance was followed by a one day sell off and then further ramp into the end of the year. The point is that neither occurrence coincided with what I was expecting. There was some level of profit taking but it was minor and used as a buying opportunity for shorts and longs.
I have said earlier that there can be a correction at any time, especially after such a powerful ramp, but I am still hard pressed to say the next significant move is down. I could focus on near-term pullback potential, but that isn't the time frame I travel in anymore.
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