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Random Thoughts

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Honesty is always the best policy.

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  • How can slim chance, fat chance and no chance mean the same thing?

  • I'm watching the retailers closely but they're not offering a collective tell.

  • The bell curve kinda sums it all up in one fell swoop. It could "coil" further to the right (the mass acne would support that view) but the broader, feller swoop paints a scary picture.

  • Monday September 22nd. Oakland vs. the Donkeys on Monday Night Football. Flush the Plummer!

  • The most important metric right now? Psychology. What shifts it? It's hard to say--even a troublesome job market is being rationalized as the "jobless recovery." Still, tomorrow's report will offer insight to investor reaction. Beeks will swing by with the unemployment rate (6.2%), change in non-critter payrolls (exp. 20k), change in manufacturing payrolls (exp. -35k) and average weekly hours (exp. 33.6).

  • Who the heck works 33 hours a week? I feel like I'm working 33 hours a day!

  • The bears who cried wolf have lost credibility. Don't shoot the messenger, but that typically happens before a good thumpin'.

  • Hoofy's heroes will assume that it's "game on" as long as the S&P stays on this side of the looking glass (S&P 1015).

  • What the heck is a fell swoop?

  • "Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events and small minds discuss people" --Jeanne Meehan

  • BKX 850 and Citigroup (C:NYSE) 42.5 are, for technical purposes, the same exact thing.

  • Upset of the week: Chargers

  • Watch National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE) as a semi tell (they just reported).

  • A wild night for me used to include bottles, tables and 3am giddiness. Now it means staying up for Jay Leno's monologue.

  • While they can certainly pretzel twist, it's worth mentioning that the NDX and S&P stochastics are about to "hook" at the top (sell signal). The SOX already has, the BKX is nowhere near.

  • Donovan McNabb is starting to catch Michael Vick.

  • Commercial hedgers are pretty short the Nazz. That's usually a very strong signal but it's worth noting that they've been very short gold too (and it doesn't come in).

  • Mr. Bernanke's Delta Tau Chi pledge name is "Jawbone."

  • "I bet you can, Panama Red!"

  • Breadth is flat as a mat.

  • N's over S's (SOX over BKX).

  • The Critters Choice Award's animated auction is set to begin next week. You wanna dance with Daisy? Box with Boo? Hang with Hoofs? Slither with Sammy? Sing with Snapper? You'll have your chance, Minyans, and the best part is that the real winners are the kids!

  • If you're staring at every tick, you're too exposed.

  • I was too bearish during this past rally. Even though I thought (and still think) we're in for many years of a nasty bear, my job dictates that I capture the rally phases. Mea culpa, and I own and accept that. I will simply say, with all due humility, that the rally we had in no way portends a rosy future. A lot of Minyans have stellar gains this year and that's a job well done. We've discussed the crosscurrents and our technical juncture. What you've gotta do is identify a suitable horizon and risk profile such that there's no second guessing if they rally hard or crash apart. That course of action is for you alone to decide.
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