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Random Thoughts

By

Honesty is always the best policy.

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  • How can slim chance, fat chance and no chance mean the same thing?

  • I'm watching the retailers closely but they're not offering a collective tell.

  • The bell curve kinda sums it all up in one fell swoop. It could "coil" further to the right (the mass acne would support that view) but the broader, feller swoop paints a scary picture.

  • Monday September 22nd. Oakland vs. the Donkeys on Monday Night Football. Flush the Plummer!

  • The most important metric right now? Psychology. What shifts it? It's hard to say--even a troublesome job market is being rationalized as the "jobless recovery." Still, tomorrow's report will offer insight to investor reaction. Beeks will swing by with the unemployment rate (6.2%), change in non-critter payrolls (exp. 20k), change in manufacturing payrolls (exp. -35k) and average weekly hours (exp. 33.6).

  • Who the heck works 33 hours a week? I feel like I'm working 33 hours a day!

  • The bears who cried wolf have lost credibility. Don't shoot the messenger, but that typically happens before a good thumpin'.

  • Hoofy's heroes will assume that it's "game on" as long as the S&P stays on this side of the looking glass (S&P 1015).

  • What the heck is a fell swoop?

  • "Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events and small minds discuss people" --Jeanne Meehan

  • BKX 850 and Citigroup (C:NYSE) 42.5 are, for technical purposes, the same exact thing.

  • Upset of the week: Chargers

  • Watch National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE) as a semi tell (they just reported).

  • A wild night for me used to include bottles, tables and 3am giddiness. Now it means staying up for Jay Leno's monologue.

  • While they can certainly pretzel twist, it's worth mentioning that the NDX and S&P stochastics are about to "hook" at the top (sell signal). The SOX already has, the BKX is nowhere near.

  • Donovan McNabb is starting to catch Michael Vick.

  • Commercial hedgers are pretty short the Nazz. That's usually a very strong signal but it's worth noting that they've been very short gold too (and it doesn't come in).

  • Mr. Bernanke's Delta Tau Chi pledge name is "Jawbone."

  • "I bet you can, Panama Red!"

  • Breadth is flat as a mat.

  • N's over S's (SOX over BKX).

  • The Critters Choice Award's animated auction is set to begin next week. You wanna dance with Daisy? Box with Boo? Hang with Hoofs? Slither with Sammy? Sing with Snapper? You'll have your chance, Minyans, and the best part is that the real winners are the kids!

  • If you're staring at every tick, you're too exposed.

  • I was too bearish during this past rally. Even though I thought (and still think) we're in for many years of a nasty bear, my job dictates that I capture the rally phases. Mea culpa, and I own and accept that. I will simply say, with all due humility, that the rally we had in no way portends a rosy future. A lot of Minyans have stellar gains this year and that's a job well done. We've discussed the crosscurrents and our technical juncture. What you've gotta do is identify a suitable horizon and risk profile such that there's no second guessing if they rally hard or crash apart. That course of action is for you alone to decide.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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