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Random Thoughts


  • Only one day remaining in the RP gold coin auction to help our hurricane relief effort. Who will be the proud owner, and guest of honor at an Uber-Succofest?

  • Credit derivatives popularity contest

  • More credit derivative talk

  • Some levels to watch today:

    Dow - 10,500 support; 10,575 resistance
    NDX - 1575 support; 1600 resistance
    SPX - 1210 support; 1240 resistance
    DX/Y - 89 support; 90.25 resistance

  • What's up, Father?

  • Warnings from Freddie Mac (FRE)

  • Google helps you find a ride now. In NY, I'd stick with just walking outside.

  • Vibes from Lehman's Jeff DeGraaf....

    "The unforeseen consequences are the drum-beat of free market advocates throughout the world. Intervention, while usually inspired by the best of intentions, fails to see the distortions that are the great by-product of their meddling. In fairness, it's not that free market proponents can always see the distortions ex ante, but their economic thought process usually raises the yellow flag suggesting that unintended consequences will prevail. We mention this because the Fed and its actions have the same effect on the economy, generally (growth, inflation, unemployment, etc.). In their latest efforts to reign in inflationary pressures, the Fed has also (consciously or other-wise) increased the value of the Dollar (we presume). This is no surprise, as sopping up the excess liquidity really means taking $ out of the system and from there it becomes a function of supply/demand.

    However, as we have pointed out on several occasions, the performance of equities, and other assets over the last 3-yrs, appears tied to the depreciation of the $ over that same period. This is consistent with classic economics, suggesting that inflation does not present itself everywhere at the same time. In this instance it appears to have first affected assets, and then spilled over into some of the consumable goods. If the Fed continues to tighten, the inflation measure to watch is unlikely to be CPI, but a combination of those capital intensive assets that were built-up over the last 3-years."

  • If you're going on vacation, be sure to pack some bulletproof gear.

  • Vibes from Prof. Schaeffer

  • Natural Gas Vibes from Snoop Tone...

    • "Prior spikes in Nat. Gas that caused prices to move 35% above intermediate-term moving average (50-day) have been excellent sell signals for Natural Gas. This occurred on August 30th and while it can be a bit early, the average drop following such a spike was 35% in 81 sessions.
    • Despite fears, it appears Natural Gas inventories are doing what they normally do.
    • Natural Gas is entering its seasonally weak period between Nov. - Jan.
    • There is no correlation between Real GDP and Natural Gas over the past 10 years."

  • It's not just the Sox/Yanks getting ready for the big weekend series

  • A little pork here, a little pork there

  • A new buy signal for the HGX today at 536, basis 4x3 chart. This takes that index back from the brink of the previously looming critical support violation below 516. - Pepe Depew

  • John Law has nothing on her

  • From Russia with love

  • The Road To Riches

  • Several brokerage firms, including Ameritrade (AMTD), are sending notices to their customers saying margin maintenance requirements are increasing for certain biotechnology stocks. -- 'Downtown' David Miller on today's buzz

  • I guess this is the final nail in the Jets' west side Manhattan stadium hopes.

  • Leave it to the two UK guys in the office to point out that there's only two weeks until Midnight Madness!
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