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Rose Hill

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The turtle is costing me hair!

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Run,run, run for the roses
The bigger it opens, the sooner it closes
Meddle, meddle, friend of mine
All good things in all good time.


(Jerry Garcia)


The third quarter edges closer to the history books and our resident turtle is getting itchy. Snapper, clipboard in hand, is walking through Minyanville in search of his cameo requirements. Dollar sparkage? Check--the (perceived) intervention took care of that this morning. Breadth test? Half a check--the internals have improved to a balanced state. Levels? Half a check--the NDX held its 50-day (1308) but the S&P is bumping up against the same (1002).Leadership? Another half check--the financials are trying to step up (and the retailers have a better) tone but the semis remain sluggish.

We sensed that Sir Snapper was, at the very least, gonna give the upside a try and he's certainly done that. In the process, he planted two seeds--one of doubt and one of hope--that will be sowed in the mindset of the trading community. I opined in my last column that if they couldn't get 'em down, the newbie shorts would elect to eject. That's happening now in Flow's Diner as Mel smells something cooking to the upside.

I would love to give you a solid read into the close but I'm not sure that one exists (as a function of the end of quarter gamesmanship). I will offer that the bull may have an edge as Boo had them dead to rights but couldn't spill the beans. That's causing some sprouts in an otherwise red forest and, as we know, those weeds can be contagious. Either way, please understand that there's some decent two-sided risk out there and craft your approach accordingly.

I'm juggling a buncha stuff today so lemme hop. I sincerely hope that you're all finding your way and, if not, that you're not pressing or guessing. The seas are angry today, my friends, so pick your spots and remain disciplined. The casino will be open for business all week.

Fare ye well.



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