Maybe it's time that I take a vacation?
The rub and tug continues as Hoofy toes his new best friend (S&P 1020) and staves off an early raid trade. The breadth is doing its part (9:5 positive) and the piggy banks, while noticeably lagging, are trying to perk up. As the financials are the engine that makes the tape chug, I'm keeping a close eye on that complex. The XBD (brokers) chart looks like it's breaking out, but lethargic action in Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) stands out (that was the tell on Intel (INTC:NASD) Friday that something was amiss).
I read and speak with a fair amount of players around the street and it seems that the new definition of being a bear is not being long. As discussed in the opening post, fading this tape is a ballsy call if it works but a complete lack of discipline if it doesn't. After a breakout, there are few levels to "lean against" on the short side and the bears are scarce. That's why false breakouts (when they occur) are so vicious.
The flow we've seen this morning is mainly skewed to the buy side although we are seeing some rotation out of semis (into software). The analyst community seems squeezy and upgrades are following the higher prices (UBS Warburg just upped Cisco (CSCO:NASD)). It's a venerable lovefest and equity ecstasy is the drug of choice.
Being a contrarian was money for three years but it's been a costly endeavor in 2003. When will it end? I wish I knew, my friends, as I would surely share the wisdom. For the record, I remain of the steadfast belief that this will end ugly--very ugly. If we've learned anything, however, it's that perception is reality in our world. And with Elmer's smoke and mirrors filling the room, Hoofy has developed a decided vanity.
On an entirely brighter note, the first auction for the Critters Choice Awards should start next week with the proceeds to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. You'll have a chance to star in the first ever Minyanville animated trailer that will premiere at the November 12th gala. Bulls, bears, snakes, Minyans...lets put our difference aside and do some good. It's for the kids!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Note: The Investor's Intelligence numbers reported this morning had a slight error. The bulls came in at 55.5 and the bears were 18.2. Not a huge difference, but just an FYI.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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