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Random Thoughts


  • A coo coup?

  • Oh, domino...

  • Pop Quiz: How can you tell when Fannie Mae (FNM) turns from being contained to being a contagion? Answer: Much lower levels. Those of us who traded through the Thai Bat headache and the LTCM hair loss can attest that when it arrives, you'll be very well aware of it.

  • Can we get one of these for Red Dye?

  • "According to Bloomberg, gold closed at a 17-yr high on the Comex. That's not an intra-day high, but it's academic. The chart looks good, yet confounding, so does the chart of the trade-weighted dollar. In fact, the $ looks much better versus the Euro and Yen because the trade weighted is influenced a great deal by the Mexican Peso and the Canadian $, both of which look bullish versus the US$. Don't forget about Japan. People are bullish, but reluctant to commit capital at these levels, preferring instead to buy on a pull-back. In our opinion, that is hugely bullish, because the acceleration is unlikely to allow much of an entry window. We continue to play for 16,000 on the Nikkei." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • So Google (GOOG) is gonna build a huge facility at NASA's Ames Research Center? Jerry Fletcher can't be happy.

  • Hangin' with the "Haves."

  • Don't forget to circle Sunday October 23 on your calendar for a little Minyanfest Football zest in NYC. We'll mingle at One Little West 12th at 4:00 PM for some hugs, handshakes and pigskin. Noice

  • Wouldn't it be smarter to give a leak?

  • T-Minus two days until quarter-end and the handlebars are getting squeezed like Sean Maguire before Will went Hunting. Take a deep breath, Minyans, and pick your spots while defining your short-term risk. And if you don't know, don't press.

  • Some vibes on Newmont Mining (NEM) from uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder: "The width of the base, post a breakout which we believes occurs, counts to a projected technical target of $65. Even if this target proves too aggressive, we figure the stock should retest the 1996 high of $60.75. NEM's 1987 high was almost $82. Momentum is strong and shows a positive divergence as it is above the late '04 high. This should bode well for price."

  • Do you think they cover Yankee baseball in the Middle East?

  • Keep a careful and wary eye on NDX 1550. While 1535 is 200-day support, a breach of the former will quickly morph the floor into a ceiling.

  • Kramer & Co.

  • Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist continues to field questions about potential insider trading activity. The White House has vowed to support Mr. Frist, indicating that the law firm of Halliburton & Bechtel will personally handle the case.

  • My ex-girlfriend will be psyched!

  • Only two days left in the Ruby Peck gold coin/Succofest auction! This will cap off our RP September disaster relief effort and we'll tally up this pup and share in the donation process the week of October 10th.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, Does the high bullishness and extreme inflows bother you in your energy outlook? You usually don't see such a widespread consensus in a "true bull market." Thanks a lot! Minyan Jim."


    I opined after Katrina that we likely saw the '05 high in crude and that's still in play (don't blink). And, as I humbly offered in Ojai, I think we're due for a meaty correction in Texas Tea (and a leadership baton toss to the metals) but that was, of course, before the hurricanes hit.

    The short answer to the question is yes--it is concerning--although I continue to believe that longer-term, these puppies will be bull dogs

  • Why the long face?

  • I have printed out Brian Reynolds vibes on a new credit cycle and will read that--along with Six Days of War--on the sure-to-be-fun fourteen hour flight.

  • Vibes from Frank Barbera who will, by the way, be featured in the Hamzei Analytics Chat this afternoon.

  • Fare ye well, my friends, and for those observing the holidays, a healthy and happy new year!

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