The Eagle Eye Fleagle
By Todd Harrison Sep 28, 2004 3:40 pm
May peace be with you!
You can spend all your time making money
You can spend all your love making time
If it all fell to pieces tomorrow
Would you still be mine?
The afternoon prance is starting to dance as traders search for their minxy romance. The action all session has been prototypical S's over N's with energy (OSX/XOI +2%) and metals (XAU +3.5%) leading the way. It's not unlike the wishbone tape we saw a few weeks back (when money was migrating from one complex to another) although today is a bit more selective. Indeed, while the beta chase remains (Google (GOOG:NASD) +7%), tech trades like a shoe is about to drop on the four-letter freaks.
We flagged the cyclicals outa the gate (on the Buzz) and they continue to skew the industrial heavy averages (Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) spurred the afternoon herd). It's an impressive showing in the face of $50 crude and if my instincts are correct (oil spills into the election), the bulls have to be encouraged as we trudge ahead. I've been openly debating the balance between a good 'ol fashioned ramp vs. a "Madrid-like" pall with the understanding that the latter isn't necessarily predicated on actual terror (but rather on the perception that risk exists). Vols don't suggest any semblance of anxiety (VXO is off another 8% today) but I'm not so sure that's comforting. Either way, the eye-popping complacency allows us flexibility in how we position our risk profile and I view that as an opportunity.
The catalyst calendar is quiet although my antennas are abuzz and on end. Maybe my sixth sense is askew but tech in general (and the semis in particular) trade like distribution is underway. Will it matter if fund managers are deep in the throws of performance anxiety? I'm not sure--we know from experience that logic is only as deep as the bottom line. Still, for my part, I'm not luggin' any of my "trading" exposure home as I wanna see what the overnight session brings. If I'm so inclined, I can always initiate fresh in the ayem.
I'm up to my eyeballs in stuff and need to jump and juggle a bit. Before I go, I'd like to circle back to an "oh by the way" thought I shared in today's Randoms. I offered that one of the benefits of being to hell and back is the ability to maintain perspective. If you haven't been on that southbound soirée, you likely haven't experienced the "pain brings perspective" trade. Each and every day, I receive emails from Minyans who have lost family members or experienced similar tragedy. My point? If you didn't make what you coulda or lost more than you shoulda, don't beat yourself up. It could always be worse.
Fare ye well into the bell.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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