By Todd Harrison Sep 27, 2005 11:39 am
NYSE breadth tastes like sour milk!
- Big hearts and golden domes.
- Will Slingshot Sally come hither? The absence of high profile overnight blows increases the relative probability in the context of quarter-end. Do I think the market "should" rally? Nosiree, Bob, I think the Minx has more issues than Boofy, the confused cross-dressing bull/bear. But the path of maximum frustration rarely cares what I think.
- Our trading contacts tell us that alotta hedges have been taken off in recent sessions (particularly in the retail sector). This has two broad stroke implications--it helps explain the liftage in the market and it paints a potentially slick downside picture if Hoofy gets stuffed into quarter-end.
- Sushi bites back!
- I slept funny last night and can't turn my neck to the right. I feel like Derek Zoolander as we edge through turnaround Tuesday.
- Hoofy just walked by doing his best Night at the Roxbury strut and said "a red morning bodes well for a green afternoon." True dat, big dawg, but holding yesterday's lows (S&P 1211 and NDX 1564) is prolly an ingredient in that mix.
- T Boone Greenspan?
- What do you get when you combine a house of cards with a stack of dominos?
- A quick sniff of the daily tea leaves finds the internals a bit on the nosty side (2:1 negative), a mixed bag in beta (Google up, homies down), energy and metals somewhat soft (counter-trend Tuesday?) and the financials, which have been a source of funds, trying to play leader for the day.
- Expect Elmer's vernacular to be hawkish when he steps to the mike. Why? He's looking out for his legacy (and not in a Flounder sorta way).
- Keep an eye on BKX 96.50ish (Auggie lows) as the first hump.
- What Hump?
- Rusty and Audrey should know better.
- If I were a Hussman, yada yada yada dada dada dada dada dee....
- Pretty Sneaky Sis! (Buzz from this morning)
Yesterday's fray was the definition of motion vs. movement. The action? Metals and energy, baby, where it's been for quite some time. I've been a staunch bull on both and continue to believe that they'll share the spotlight for years to come.
With that said, and in the interest of honesty, I sport two flaws in my forthright cause. First, while I opined that Katrina would top tick the '05 slick (and it has, thus far, in terms of crude), the OSX and XOI (energy patch) have barely blinked. While we know "why" (refining capacity), it speaks to the dynamic of tracking risk.
Lesson: Make sure your vehicle of choice is a proper expression of your intention.
Second, while I saw the leadership lateral (from crude to the metals) while sittin' in the mountains, I didn't expect the trek to be so steep (the XAU is up 20% since we left Ojai). As such, I missed some opportunities to build exposure in this complex.
Lesson: Let your first buy be your worst buy. Partial exposure allows you to participate on the upside while keeping powder dry for lower levels.
- Isn't it true Professor Fleckenstein....it's FleckenSTEIN!
- Spin Cycle.
- I'm going back to Ojai, to Ojai, to Ojai...
- Just give me a router, a diet coke and a side of fries please.
- Happy belated birthday to Saucy Minyan Wendy Wanderman!
- No wonder Hoofy looks a bit tired.
- Take a picture, it lasts longer.
- S&P 1220-1225 remains the first Hump on the bovine stump. IF Hoofy can't get that party started (right), the highly anticipated post-Rita rally (which started Thursday) will morph into an ursine angle.
- Watch Lennar (LEN) as a top tell in the homie kvell.
- Le Trapeze! The trannies flipped the switch yesterday (again) and failed anew under the 200-day moving average.
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo- Did you see the Bob Dylan documentary directed by Scorcese on PBS? Part Deux is tonight. It is a must see--pretty awesome. Great quote from it: If the student does not become better than the teacher, the teacher has failed says the Budda. That is your mission with MV--you are the teacher. Minyan Geoff Garbacz"
- Dr. Babar. Two B's? No, one B. B-a-b-a-r. That's two B's. Yes, but not together.
- Pictures from the latest Wall Street research conference.
- Is Microsoft (MSFT) really 0-for-September? It's pretty close--the Redmond Redhead has barely seen an uptick this month.
- Today's tea leaves? The Usual Suspects, Pretzel Boy, but keep in mind that sector specific agendas will likely trump movement in the mainstay averages.
- Tough love from Dr. Minyan Marc Faber.
- Which Minyan wants to hoist an 1865 gold coin while hoisting a slew of geese with Professor Succo and I? I swear that we'll make it a night to remember if you promise me that what happens at Succofest stays at Succofest!
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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