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Morning Dew

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I'm trying to share my process with hopes that it adds to yours.

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  • Hoofy Blutarksy, along with most of the mainstream media, seems to be screaming "See if you can guess what I am now?" I suppose we can't blame him--as each attendant probe of resistance (support) weakens supply (demand), the S&P is on the verge of technical self-fulfillment.

  • I'll be keeping a close eye on the piggies through this process. If the BKX can 'confirm' the break-out with a move to all-time highs (above BKX 114), it'll be a feather in the bovine cap.

  • That, of course, isn't a panacea. But given performance anxiety into quarter-end (which should abate Thursday, not Friday) and the potential for the fear of missing into year-end, when fund managers get paid--it's a scenario that must be respected.

  • Particularly if it arrives in concert with a softer greenback.

  • Speaking of concerts, Clapton is playing the Garden Thursday night. There's nothing wrong with some Slowhand on our time.

  • So, am I getting bullish? As mapped out last week, a "broader upside migration" was mentioned as a distinct possibility. The KEY to the tape, and by extension our fortunes, will lie in how the rally unfolds.

  • I could try to explain this with a succinct summation but Jeff Saut, my brother from Raymond James, sums it up much better than I ever could. If you're not reading the savvy soothsayer's every word, you may very well be at a natural disadvantage in your quest for a zesty bottom line.

  • I'm not gonna sugar coat my feel, or lack thereof--it's been a tough month for yours truly. Be that as it may, I still own the slew of January calls in energy (such as Weatherford (WFT)) and metals (such as Golden Star (GSS)) against a spate of March puts in the financials (such as JP Morgan (JPM)).

  • Naturally, I've got many other positions but I'm trying to share my process with hopes that it adds to yours. I began these positions on September 12, for those keeping score at home.

  • CRB 300 seems to be a sticky level for the commodity proxy but CRB 292 remains a more important technical level. It's where it broke out from (and held the retest) in 2005.

  • I was walking to work this morning, reading the Wall Street Journal as I typically do. As I got to some reasons for yesterday's rhyme--which wasn't crude, on this particular day--I had to stop and ponder. After walking through the abysmal housing numbers, the paper extrapolated that, "given the decline in existing home prices for the first time in eleven years, some investors took it as a sign that the FOMC would consider cutting interest rates. Lower rates are considered good for stocks because they reduce borrowing costs and can raise profits."

  • Alright--I get that. But weren't we just freaked out about higher interest rates? And didn't the Fed's Fisher opine yesterday that he's still concerned about inflationary pressures? For the record, and so it's said, I agree that the next move by the FED will be a cut in interest rates. I suppose I'm simply more concerned with the "why" than most folks are.

  • And Finally....

    Did you see the new flash module on the home page? Pay particular attention to The Exchange, which will allow Minyans to connect directly with Minyans. We're still ironing out the mechanics but this functionality is the intuitive next step for our community. Imagine Minyans in the Mountains coming to virtual life every day!


R.P.

position in energy, metals, financials, jpm, wft, gss
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