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Random Thoughts


Hit 'em hard and let's end this week with a little jingle, baby!


  • Brian "The Iron Horse" Reynolds wrote one of his finest vibes this morning (in my humble opinion).

  • The difference between respecting the price action and deferring to it is all the difference in the world. Remember, there are times that momentum strategies work and others--like when you're in a trading range--when they don't.

  • While the 'Ville has been in the works since (more or less) September 11, 2001, the critters official online birthday is next Friday, when they'll turn two!

  • "The mortgage portfolio bubble is a very dangerous topic which is why I believe long term rates are going down while volatility is going down. The fed controls long term rates more than people think. They talk to the market and understand how important it is to guide long term rates higher in this 130bps higher 90bps lower stair step. If rates went to 5.75% in 2 months, it would kill the banks and Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) (in my opinion and not advice). As long as rates go higher slowly (read inflation is in check) I don't see it (the Fannie spanking) spreading. In my conversations with the Fed, they understand they are the risk manager for FNM. Banks are going to pay for the free call option they sell to home buyers but it will take time. Without control over reporting "mark to market," it will likely be a slow process. But once it starts, it may very well snowball." -Uber-Minyan Jordi Visser.

  • The proliferation of reality shows is starting to reek of a "top." I saw two advertisements last night--one for "The Biggest Loser" where obese people try to lose weight (I think this is shameful) and another for guys dressing up like girls. What's next? An animated financial reality show where critters are metaphorical representations of the market?

  • Until the industrials make a new high, the Dow Theory "non-confirmation" will remain in motion.

  • Until the piggies can mount the BKX 97.5/98 hump, I think Boo has the ball.

  • Please note the S&P 200-day (1117) as well.

  • T-minus 5 days left until those quarter-end letters...

  • Is it me or is there an increasing trend towards venomous television and rude personalities?

  • Russell 200-day.

  • The greenback is gettin' smacked in early trade. Watch DXY 88 as a support (there now).

  • A flattening yield curve traditionally isn't a good thing for banks.

  • Dr. Seuss used only 50 different words in writing Green Eggs and Ham.

  • Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE), as part of its annual report, lowered '03 net income from $4.891 bln to $4.816 bln due to the recording of a $75 mln expense for a legal reserve in Q2 of '03.

  • Congrats again to Minyan Dan Meehan on his pending nuptials. Mallied?

  • Phillips (PHG:NYSE), Europe's top consumer electronics group, lowered Q3 estimates for its chip unit and said they see a significant slowdown in the semiconductor space next year.

  • Silver is smack dab in the middle of a few resistance zones. If it can punch through, lotsa bears will lose their catalyst.

  • I'm gonna be scootin' from the 'Ville early this afternoon to ready for the observance of Yom Kippur. Thank you kindly for your understanding and, for all those observing, I would like to wish you an "easy fast."

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