By Todd Harrison Sep 23, 2004 2:35 pm
Good luck folks!
"There's no mystery to the street, no arch criminal behind it all. If you find a body and you think his brother did it, you're gonna find out you're right."
--Verbil Kint, The Usual Suspects
The afternoon riot is eerily quiet as traders digest this new Minxy diet. The second helping of supply in the F-troop is the standout element in Equityland, although the metals--and crude--are making their case in the attention chase. As discussed in this morning's missive, there are opportunities under the hood although there is a haphazard element to today's chaos. That sorta stuff is bound to happen as the Street jockeys for position into quarter-end.
Themes--and yes, there are some--center around the N's over S's dichotomy. It makes intuitive sense as the beta chase battles the GSE space. The internets have been a place of hiding for many moons as hedgies look for bang to their performance buck. We've been speaking of their accumulation and they've handily digested the stress tests. That, the balanced breadth (all day), semi strength (we flagged the semicap traction on the Buzz this morning) and lack of follow-through (thus far) are the focus in Matador City.
The flip side of the coin is, quite literally, the flip side of the coin. I focus on the financials for good reason and wouldn't harp on their importance unless there was meat to that bone. When the BKX breaks the 200-day and Fannie (FNM:NYSE) takes a ten percent haircut, you should ignore it at your own risk. To be sure, we've seen downside head-fakes in this group before but that is hardly a reason to discount their influence. Just remember, Agent Kujan, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he doesn't exist.
Beeks will drop off the (durable) goods (exp.-.3, ex-tran.8%) and existing home sales (exp. 6.63 mm) tomorrow morning and then the psychology and technical metrics will carry us towards our requisite two day respite. We should note that lotsa traders will also be scooting early in preparation for the Yom Kippur holiday (begins at sundown) so we could see a pick-up in volatility as the marketplace thins. For my part, I'll be here for the better part of the session before turning my attention to the family and the important stuff.
Lots going on and it promises to get a bit nuttier in the sessions ahead so keep your head up and your eyes focused. Everywhere I turn, there seems to be tighter money and more concern as we edge forward through the post-bubble years. We have two choices, Minyans, we can either buckle down and chew through it or we can raise a flag and step aside. Neither option is particularly pleasing but there is a path through the muck if we stick to our guns. Keep your head up and think positive--it all starts within.
Fare ye well into the bell.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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