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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts

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I sincerely hope Minyans have a fantastic session, a safe weekend and a mindful journey.

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  • We've been on watch for a commodity snapper and, by extension, whether that would trigger a rotation (out of the heretofore winners) or a broader migration (higher). Yesterday, obviously, we saw a pure rotation which tells me that inflation fears still dominate deflation worries. I think that'll soon shift as more reports (such as Yahoo! and the Philly Fed) dent the denial phase.

  • So, are we supposed to sell Rosh Hashana and buy Yom Kippur or the other way around? Either way, Healthy and Happy New Year to those observing!)

  • While I'm long calls in some drillers and metal names and long puts in the piggies out to March, the uneasy side of that "V" shaped risk profile is the former. That'll prolly bode well for commodity stocks as the best trades are the ones that make you uneasy at a point.

  • "This little sell-off is being met by nothing but option selling. Aggressive option selling. These sell-offs are viewed as opportunities by option sellers, those who think the market will continue to grind higher. They are, of course, selling options at the cheapest prices I have seen. I am buying volatility cheaper and cheaper. This is inductive thinking. Investors are rewarded time and time again by this activity as we are all conditioned that the Fed will rescue any sell-off in nominal asset prices. The very definition of complacency." John Succo on yesterday's Buzz

  • I look at the real estate realm in three buckets: the homebuilder stocks (which are toxic traders after the 50% haircut), real estate (which should trend lower as a function of 1) being a lagging indicator of liquidity and 2) $2 trillion of adjustable rate mortgages resetting by the end of '07) and land, which if purchased properly, is a safe haven.

  • I had a red carpet moment last night at the Hawaiian Tropic Zone as I patiently waited for Petra to waltz away. And, lest you think I was slacking, worry not--I was scouting it out for the party portion of our upcoming December 1st Minyans in Manhattan Festivus (save the date).

  • Pile On! Everyone seems to be taking (well deserved) shots at my Raiders these days. That's alright cookie, it comes with the territory. Bad seasons define good fans.

  • We've been monitoring the emerging markets for a mighty long time--they were the "WATCH YOUR BACK!" signal in front of the June swoon. They continue to be on my radar, with Brazil and the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) as particularly favorite proxies.

  • I'm gonna spend my morning on the Buzz, as always, before scooting around noon for my holiday trip to Baltimore. I sincerely hope Minyans have a fantastic session, a safe weekend and a mindful journey. In 100 years, today's ticks won't matter but the fam time--the smiles, memories, laughter and soulfulness--surely will.


R.P.

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Position in drillers, metals, financials
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