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Random Thoughts


How can I rally if NYSE internals are 2:1 negative from wire to wire?

  • Coin Star! The Ruby Peck Foundation Katrina Relief Effort continues today with the auction of our gold coin. Donated by Professor Laurie McGuirk, bidding on the 1865 Italian "T" 20 Lire GOLD COIN Vittorio Emanuele II started at $250. We had to "re-link" the auction yesterday (to ensure the philanthropic vibe) and the current high bid is $740. Please click here for more information and to help us give something back.

  • Pole Position? I am hearing that dealers are particularly short October gamma (options). This jibes nicely with A) my belief that we'll soon see a meaty move, B) Collins' Bollinger confirmation and C) Pepe's vibe that the vols have "broken out."

  • The Matador Crowd is trying to spur the upside herd and is having select success-the homies are squeezy (after yesterday's nasty downside reversal), the nets were green outa the gate and the semis bounced (the first time) on our long-awaited SOX 450 level. It should be noted that NYSE internals have barely budged during this rally attempt and that's typically not a very good sign.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Big T, Just wondering what I would look at to see if a rally is futures led. Is there a specific symbol? Thanks, Minyan Mark"

    MM- I watch the S&P cash vs. the S&P futures and can usually sniff out which is the dog and which is the tail. It's a bit of an acquired knack that comes from staring at the flickerin' ticks for 15 years.

  • A dog eat dog world?

  • In Flow's Diner, we're seeing a seller of 100,000 QQQQ October 40 puts. This added some upside pressure to the tech tape this morning (the buyer of the puts must buy QQQQ to hedge).

  • Rita's wind speed probability table.

  • Life at a long only fund?

  • Please note the slippage in the precious metal arena as gold is off $5 and white lightning is a bit frightening (silver -1.25%). A lil' give back isn't a shocker after the eye-popping run they've had and I'm viewing weakness as a long-term opportunity.

  • If only money grew on trees.

  • Last night's Succofest was one for the ages. In addition to the spirited discourse and insightful observations, some seeds began to crystallize in my crowded keppe regarding the nextgen Minyanville experience. Inspiring stuff indeed.

  • Wasabi Elmer!

  • "Toddo: Real FEAR here in Galveston and Houston yesterday and growing rapidly this, friends, acquaintances calling wondering what to do...cell phone lines and land lines are jammed busy; calls often not getting through...lots of panic and fear...all major and secondary freeways have been crawling along since yesterday at 2-3 mph...people watching TV and now not leaving because of traffic jams...recipe for running out of gas on gas available...people moving 35 miles in 12 hours & still on the road...5.2 million people in greater Houston area; must be 3 million of them headed north on freeways trying to get out...refinery and chemical industry along ship channel preparing for worst...huge impact if Rita hits Galveston bay...25'+ storm surge-no protection anywhere for that kind of surge...saltwater in the refineries and motors = huge problem, no quick fix and restart...looks bad = clear, warm, beautiful days. later bro, Minyan TP."

  • Maybe there's a bit of upside left for our gold coin auction?

  • The United States is likely to experience slower economic growth next year, and its rapidly rising foreign debt is at the heart of dangerous global imbalances, the International Monetary Fund said, according to the New York Times. The IMF said global economic growth had become too dependent on a handful of countries, led by the United States, that consume far more than they produce. That imbalance, it warned, could lead to a wrenching correction, the newspaper said.

  • If Macke is Tupac, does that make me Biggie?

  • Homies and blunts.

  • Google (GOOG) is ticklin' all-time highs as a function of A) chatter that it'll be added to the S&P and B) it's the most obvious vehicle for performance anxiety.

  • Maybe I should just put Sarah out to pasture?

  • "As expected, last night the bullish percent index for the S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq-100 in reversing down from a high level, according to data from Dorsey Wright. The bullish percent for the S&P 500 reversed down from above 70%. This changes the overall risk context for the S&P 500 to negative, an indication that supply is now in control. For educational purposes, under these circumstances I assume more exposure and more risk in short positions that are SPX and NDX related, selling rallies more aggressively as setups under DeMark or Elliott materialize. Not advice, just sharing how this context change affects my decision-making." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • Chinese food for thought.

  • Don't hate the player. Hate the game.

  • Prayers and white light to our Gulf Coast Minyans and everyone in that region who is bracing for Rita. This storm is no joke and we'll continue to do what we can in the 'Ville to make a difference in the relief effort. It's easy to be "there" for each other when times are good. You find out who your true friends are when the schvitz hits the fan.

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