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Shoe Goo

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The multinationals should provide a sentiment proxy for the lower dollar.

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Broken bottles under children's feet
Bodies strewn across the dead end street
But I won't heed the battle call
It puts my back up, puts my back up against the wall


(U2)

A sloppy opening greets our minxy Monday and the gap lower immediately probes the first support zone. S&P 1020 (NDX 1365) have thus far held and, as long as they do, there will be a "successful retest" camp looking to buy dips. It's the very definition of a double edged sword--there is an upside agenda in front of quarter-end and PM's will attempt to "make themselves right." That'll work until it doesn't--but if it doesn't, there will be a lot of trapped bulls luggin' exposure.

Morning breadth is absolutely nasty and it'll need some serious toothpaste to improve. My eyes are fixated on the financials for signs of slippage/traction. Please keep in mind that Goldman (GS:NYSE), Morgan (MWD:NYSE) and Lehman (LEH:NYSE) all report tomorrow and there's bound to be posturing ahead of those events. Still, after the run they've had, I would think that pretty good numbers are baked into that cake.

In four-letter land, watch Cisco (CSCO:NASD), Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) and the semicaps for guidance. As a broader brush, gold (shining, but off its highs), the dollar (fugly, but off its lows) and Europe (blimy!) should help paint the macro picture. It's early, my friends, and there's a lot of trading left in the day, week, month and year. Tread carefully.

I'll be back.
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