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Sitting, Watching, Waiting

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I am sitting, watching, waiting and reminding myself that having the patience not to play is better than falling off the tricycle.

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These are the times I don't like my job. I'm not getting hurt from a P&L standpoint, but the market is defying virtually all of its pillars: fundamentals, technicals, structural and psychology.

We know the economy is slowing – no debate over that. Technically, there are enough divergences and forks in the road that even Yogi Berra would be confused. Structurally we know the mess we are in and things aren't getting any better (and this is a republican-to-the-core speaking). And psychologically, a 30-year-old playing at Risks-R-Us falls off the tricycle and vaporizes $6 bln in one week. Result? People yawn.

I recognize that this drumbeat has been playing in the 'Ville for a while and the Minx really has not cared about what our prevailing thinking is. But then again, it hasn't mattered either that Mr. Hunter made $800 mln last year before deciding he was smart enough to arbitrage the weather between October and December, using double digit leverage to boot. It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye...and/or $6 bln.

The point of this rant is that this backdrop is pushing me to the trading/investing sidelines, and given that trading/investing is what I do, sitting on the bench is no fun. My only recent activity has consisted of closing positions that had served their purposes, and trying to scalp energy plays. The latter more to keep me awake than to make me money.

So What Ideas Are Out There?

The chart of Fair-Isaac (FIC) caught my eye, and given the little I know about it, I'll give it a fundies look as it may pair well against the lenders exposed to the housing bust. Also, I have been selling puts on Joy Global (JOYG) as it scrapes the lower end of its historical valuation.

Other than that, I am sitting, watching, waiting and reminding myself that having the patience not to play is better than falling off the tricycle.
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Positions in JOYG
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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