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Random Thoughts


Don't fumble the fish!


  • "It is very rare that you can be as unqualifiedly bullish as you can be now." -Alan Greenspan in the New York Times on 1/7/73, two days after the stock market peaked and proceeded to decline almost 50% over two years as the U.S. experienced the worst recession since the Great Depression.

  • Is an Eagles/Pats Super Bowl too easy?

  • "Semis continued to rally on Monday with the usual incredulousness that often accompanies tradable and durable moves. We still believe 435 is the next resistance level, and even though our general market call would suggest a tired market running into resistance, Tech and Semis specifically, still appear to have modest upside. Supporting this claim is our breadth oscillator on the S&P1500 Information Technology sector which turned positive on Monday. It is currently the only sector with positive price, volume and breadth oscillators." --Lehman's talented Jeff DeGraaf.

  • The Husster!

  • "Free" markets? Read between the lines...

  • If the Raiders had Corey Dillon, they would be a playoff team. Then again, if wishes were knishes, I'd be 20 lbs. heavier.

  • Wasabi!

  • Reason to fear or simply the fear card?

  • Collins thinks General Electric (GE:NYSE) is the most important stock in the world. John Roque and I are in agreement that Citigroup (C:NYSE) holds that title. What say ye?

  • Over the last 100 years, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the incumbent party has NEVER lost when the D-J Industrial Average rose 3.3% or more in the final month of the campaign. In years when the Dow dipped 0.5% or more in October, the incumbent party has NEVER won.

  • Can blood and vermin be far behind?

  • A buddy of mine from Philly pinged me this morning to say "How bout my birds baby!" and I thought his pet bird gave birth. After two cups of joe, I realized he was talkin' bout the Eagles.

  • palmOne (PLMO:NASD) reported last night and let the stock run up $7 (on their "beating estimates") before lowering guidance at 5:30 pm. The stock is now $5 lower (or $10 from where it was on the number). Does anybody else think that there's something wrong with that?

  • I'll frip ya, I'll frip ya for real!

  • Succo...Speedo...Succo...Speedo...

  • From the uber-talented Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame: "What we see here is one of the most remarkable periods of non-confirmations and extreme divergence that have ever appeared in the Averages...Historically, when the Averages have disagreed, it's been an indication of distribution and trouble. My guess is that within the next few months we'll see what this almost year-long divergence and series of non-confirmations means."

  • We're above the S&P 1120 (and more important 1113) level but below the NDX 200-day moving average (1440) and the first (of many) resistance levels in the S&P (1130ish). Toss XBD 130 on the radar as well, particularly with the 3%+ gains in Lehman (LEH:NYSE), Goldman (GS:NYSE) and Mother Merrill (MER:NYSE).

  • Iranian President Mohammad Khatami indicated the country will continue its nuclear program and threatened to suspend inspections by the United Nations as the U.S. presses for sanctions according to Bloomberg. Nobody seems to care yet but I'll ask that you splash it on your radar.

  • "We got no food, no jobs... our PET'S HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!" --Lloyd Christmas

  • I flattened my Citigroup (C:NYSE) position this morning when the stock tickled near-term support at $45. Why? The action in the brokers, uncertainty surrounding Elmer and a 5% move in a coupla days (was a pure trade). I wanna take a step back and watch Sandy's wheel for a bit before risking any more of my hard earned capital.

  • Welcome Michael (apprentice #1) and good luck on the standard sushi ordering initiation (may God have mercy on your soul if you screw this up!) If you know of NYC based students who are interested in an internship in the city of critters, please ping us and we'll take a look. It's not easy work--nothing worth anything ever is--but they'll learn a ton and have some fun.

  • NYSE breadth is sticky at 2:1 while the Nazz is holding 3:2. It can--and likely will--change after 2:15pm but it warrants a mention.

  • Note the lethargy in the net names.

  • I tried to hoop last night but my back pain isn't conducive to my Charles Oakley style of play.

  • 219.5 lbs.

  • How many Randoms is this?

  • Minyanville is more than a financial scribe vibe--it's a community where we watch each other's back and genuinely care about doing the right thing.

  • Brian Reynolds made a great point yesterday when he said that "the" downside catalyst, if and when, will likely come from left field.

  • Crude is back at $47/brl.

  • Collins is wearing a jumpsuit jacket with two stripes down the side and I can't get Warren out of my head. Have you seen his baseball?

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