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Random Thoughts

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Alas, today is anything but normal as FOMC sessions are often a tale of two tapes.

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  • Pure eyes, and on a normal day, 2:1 positive market breadth, coupled with the (continued) traction in the financials, makes the upside an odd's on bet. Alas, today is anything but normal as FOMC sessions are often a tale of two tapes.

  • A good Minyan just asked what I'm thinking in here. I told him that I'm allowing for acne (above S&P 1326) and an upside sigh of relief followed by a reversal lower. The caveat to that equation is BKX 114 (new highs in the piggies) and performance anxiety (into year-end).

  • Post-FOMC tells? The usual suspects, including the financials, breadth, dollar and the commodity complex. Please put limits on those orders to avoid any unnecessary surprises or unwanted fills.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows bullish sentiment climbed to 47.3% from 45.8% while bearish sentiment fell to 33.7% from 35.4% in the prior week.

  • "The SP futures have been in positive territory since the open. When this happens on FOMC day (the SP doesn't trade negative from pit open 9:30 am EST to 2:00 pm EST), the SP ended the day positive 80% of the time and traded negative after the FOMC release just 36% of the time. There were 30 occurrences (including last June's meeting). We don't want to presume anything, but it is worth noting that if we isolate the positive closes, the next day (i.e. tomorrow's action) was negative more than half the time." Jason Roney on today's Buzz.

  • We saw an odd-lot scoop 20,000 XLF (financial spyder) puts earlier today as it punched to a new high and vols are dirt cheap.

  • Where's Amanad Wurlitzer when you really need her?

  • "After Oracle (ORCL) and Morgan "Dean who?" Stanley (MS) boot-stomped estimates, the market should be able to put in a rally effort here. As we're fond of pointing out around here, markets that don't react the way they "should" are telling you something; a failure here would bode poorly for the short term, from where I'm sitting." Television's JeffMacke® on the pre-market Buzz.

  • Minyans have asked so I'll again share the link to CPH's incredible jewelry. She's pretty creative, if I do say so myself!

  • Minyans might notice that I've been a bit more slammed than usual of late. Suffice to say that there's a LOT going on behind the scenes (most of it quite positive) and I've been chewing through some family stuff as well. Just communicating, as we always communicate in these parts.

  • "As Professor Woody Dorsey alluded to earlier today, it just doesn't matter. While it's not mattering however, I'll simply point out that along with the active DeMark sell signals on the daily chart of the BKX and assorted banks, the XBD today is registering a DeMark sell signal as well. But, it just doesn't matter. Until it does." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know....



    • Is CRB 300 "meaningful" or is CRB 292 (2004 acne and 2005 retest) a more important technical level?
    • Do you see BKX 114 (all-time highs) coming up quick?
    • Does a Tale of Two Tapes exist when everyone and their sister knows the FOMC will sit on their hands?
    • Six minute Abs?
    • If Amaranth was levered four to one, as I'm hearing, how deep will the river run in a derivative laden, interwoven financial fabric?
    • Do you see Europe up smartly across the board?
    • I've been eating a lot of cheese lately, do you think that's some sorta allergy or something?
    • Are you exercising discipline over conviction?


R.P.

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