By Todd Harrison Sep 20, 2005 12:40 pm
Two words, Toddo: Tire Iron
- I bought a book on speed reading but I couldn't get past the first chapter.
- Rita, Rita, profit eater.
- Vibes from the ubiquitous Pepe Depew: "The NYMEX crude chart at present counts to 87. However, this count will be violated if crude falls below $63, which would confirm a head & shoulders top formation. Meanwhile, the continuous futures contract (already on a sell signal) shows a downside count to 56, which just happens to be the long-term trendline.
This leaves us with the following levels:
- 63 confirms new sell signal, voids upside long-term count to 87
- 56, trendline support on downside
- 65.50, new buy signal, resistance beyond that at 69.50"
- It's the quiet ones you gotta watch!
- Hi Ho Silver!
- One of the first rules of thumb I learned in trading is to let your first sale be your worst sale. Likewise, when building a position, partial purchases often provide adequate exposure while leaving plenty of powder dry.
- I've heard the "Google (GOOG)is gonna be added to the S&P" chatter every day for the last month. One of these days, it'll surely be true.
- Money Business with Dr. John Hussman.
- Toll Brothers (TOL), digesting dandruff, is sittin' on the 200-day as we speak.
- Please add the Chicago Merc (CME) to the master beta list. And check out that chart, cookie...
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag
"Toddo- With Rita's wrath brewing in the Gulf, I see seeds being sown that could springboard the tape to new highs in the next 5-10 trading days. First, I am beginning to strongly disagree with your assessment (rarely do I say this) that traders are lopsidedly leaning long into qtr end. The vast majority of my trading contacts have become much more defensive, which has me going mum with the tape only 14 pts from making multi year closing highs. The scenario that I will be on the look out for is:
- Tape reacts negatively to the FMOC announcement
- Rita fears increase.
- SPX 1220 breaks but August lows hold
- Rita fears end up being over blown
- Tape slingshots to new highs in a frantic qtr end strive for performance
I wanted to share your vibe for a few reasons. First, it's certainly within the probability spectrum as it marries many of the crosscurrents currently in play. Also, it resonates as I had a similar discussion with a certain horse, er, bull that stopped by the 'Ville yesterday for a quick cameo.
I will offer that if (big if) we get a negative reaction to Elmer and the tape skips 20 handles lower, alotta leaners will get shaken out of the quarter-end tree. First things first, and one foot in front of the other, let's see what unfolds in four short hours.
- Hamzei Analytics will proudly feature Tim Ord in today's chat. If you haven't checked out this forum, Minyans, it's worthy of some sniffage.
- The Rubber and the Road.
I'll share this tale as a catharsis and because I still can't believe that it actually happened. It started when I snuck from the 'Ville yesterday to support a friend who hosted his 9/11 memorial benefit in Nowheresville, NJ. I don't drive my car very often which is more a function of living in NYC than the fact that it costs an arm and a leg to fill 'er up. Still, I haven't been able to part with "Sarah," a snazzy 2001 BMW M5 that screams when she roars and purrs when she snores.
I got out of the city easy enough, no small feat in the congested mess that is Manhattan. And the trip was relatively seamless as I hummed along route 78. Then, in what can only be described as a momentary lapse of reason, the car to my left suddenly drifted towards me. I took evasive action to avoid a collision but Sarah caught her front right hoof on the exit divider. Four minutes and several follicles later, I was sitting on the side of the road with a blown front tire.
I was aggravated, of course, but felt fortunate as it coulda been much worse. That optimism was tested when I realized that the M-series doesn't come with a spare tire. Fast forward one hour, a flat bed truck and a long schlep to the nearest BMW dealership later, I was back in business. I left Sarah in the wilds, picked up a rental car and continued on the journey to support my friend. It was rush hour now and traffic was at a standstill. Still, I knew that I could make a cameo if I caught a break.
As the sun began to set and I pulled off the exit, a frustratingly familiar feeling emerged. My rental, the SUV that was supposed to save the day, had a flat tire. To add salt to the wound, repeated attempts to call Enterprise (and BMW, for that matter) prompted me into a world of computerized loopage. It was now dark, I was in a suit and I was about as far from Kansas as I could be. I rolled up my sleeves, jacked up that pig and put the tag ends on one of the more frustrating six hour spans of my life.
- Our debt to society.
- Been there, done that.
- Good luck with Elmer and please remember to put limits on dem dar orders if you're trading the announcement.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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