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Random Thoughts

By

Good luck Florida Minyans!

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  • I've got the fever for the flavor of a critter!

  • The breadth is relatively better on the NYSE today (flat Nazz) although it's not as minty as it was yesterday.

  • We've seen a lot of short covering in the retail space today.

  • From Scotto "Whew! For a second there I thought Toddo was gonna call me out in whiffle ball" Reamer on today's Buzz: "The aggregate social psychology that presents itself in stock prices (and thus in certain technical indicators attempting to identify this underlying psychology) presents itself in fundamentals AFTERWARDS. Why? Because stock prices are the most "efficient" (read immediate) way for social psychology to present itself, for people to express their bullishness. Only afterwards does that aggregate bullish psychology present itself in underlying fundamentals as excess demand for goods/services which drives up revenues and earnings to a "surprise" level. Fundamentals don't "reflect" that underlying bullishness as immediately because, by definition, fundies are a lagging indicator. After all, we don't "see" what a company's fundamentals look like until 15-30 days after 90's day's worth of data has been collected (the quarterly conference call). That's why technicals "lead" fundamentals" and why, as my presentation suggested, relying only on fundamentals to manage assets is mistaken. And lamentably, it is why 85% of active PM's failed to beat the averages over the last 30 years."

  • Sometimes a trade just 'feels' right even before it happens. Such is the case in my decision to spend the weekend with my two favorite little people.

  • Can Intel (INTC:NASD) be optimistic on the back to school season? Yes--but that doesn't mean they'll be right. Remember how optimistic they were into the end of last year?

  • Lighten up Frances! Prayers to all our southeast coast Minyans and particular vibes to Grandma Dorothy. And thank you John Dunn--Minyan extraodinare--who is helpin' my grandmother shutter her abode. Good, good man you are sir.

  • The Minyan network is the crown jewel of our community. As such, we're exploring ways to leverage that contact base for the benefit of our readers. Stay tuned for information on how to interconnect with your fellow Minyans and further your reach in the financial community. I sense that this is the natural next step and bringing together folks who are like-minded and share our vision!

  • Crude is (another) 2.5% higher following reports that Iraq's oil pipeline to Ceyhan is on fire following an explosion.

  • Did anyone see the Jane Pauley interview "Out of the Blue" on NBC last night? It documented her struggle with bi-polar disorder and was pretty powerful. As someone who has an intimate experience with this disease (and has been recently reminded how vicious it is), I appreciated how difficult it can be on both the person and their family.

  • Has anyone actually bat an eye? Or do they bat eyelashes?

  • I asked Succo what was at the end of the universe. He asked me which dimension I was referring. to.

  • If there are any research salespeople looking for an opportunity at a fantastic boutique sell-side firm, please give me a ping and I'll point you in the right direction.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo, Hard to imagine two generations of minyans in a year, but it's true. My son, Conor Sen, has recently co-authored a book with Larry Connors (Investment Secrets of a Hedge Fund Manager, Street Smarts) that examines short-term price action in the SPX and NDX over 1,2, and 5 day periods based on previous action. Among others, they examine the effects of the VIX, put-call ratios, volume, new highs and new lows, successive highs and lows. They extend some of the work of Toby Crabel in the hard-to-get 'Day Trading with Short-Term Price Patterns' and the work challenges much of Wall Street's 'fact' with examination of 14 years of data. Instant classic? As former pitcher Joaquin Andujar would say, "They have a word for it in English - youneverknow", but it's a tool I'm proud to have on my shelf. Thanks and best to all the critters. Minyan Ron Sen, MD Melrose, MA"

  • The Minyanville weigh-off starts Tuesday with proceeds going to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. If you would like to play along at home, give us a ping before Tuesday's opening. Rich Gula and Dan Meehan have joined the fray--which doesn't worry me. I've seen both of them in action before!

  • Breakfast with Cheney.

  • The financials--both the piggies and brokers--have edged red on the day.

  • The rhythmic rhymes are startin' to chime in the Minyanville school house. Make sure you visit with your little critters and share Susan Wein's fantastic scribes!

  • Select internets have been grinding higher of late. We saw a seller of eBay (EBAY:NASD) and Amazon (AMZN:NASD) puts earlier this morning.

  • It's increasingly interesting for me to watch the evolvements of media, particularly as the Minyanville "voice" is established and crafted. Each network has a particular "sect" (slant) not only on how they report but what they report. I've come to find that media is far and away the most powerful industry in the world as it shapes public opinion which, in turn, dictates virtually every aspect of life.

  • A LOT of people have been pinging me to offer that September is gonna be a banner month for gold. That's a little spooky for the yella metal bulls.

  • Critter icons for your instant message! scroll down

  • The drugs continue to struggle after failing at their previous support (DRG 323)

  • I'm off like a prom dress after the close (Baltimore) so lemme take the time (while I have it) to wish ye faithful a peaceful and relaxing Labor Day vibe.

    R.P.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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