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Random Thoughts

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If you're trading well and not making money, that's a likely sign to unwind some risk and play smaller.

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  • Let's see, we've got a coup in Thailand, social unrest in Hungary, warnings in tech, weaker economic numbers, a showdown at the U.N and now, out of nowhere, UFO's! Rod Sterling , stamp a red ticket!

  • The other side of the trade, courtesy of Mr. Milkin.

  • "The level of risk investors are taking is now similar to that of the late 1980's. Option selling is everywhere; I have not seen this much index option selling (which is the most dangerous) since then. The fact that there was a big blow-up in a major hedge fund yesterday points to the fact that investors are showing no concern about risk. The conditions are set. Every effort by a still over-active Fed only contributes to the growing debt of consumers. When credit contracts, you get PPI numbers like this morning." John Succo on the pre-opening Buzz.

  • We knew that the weeks after September expiration historically have issues (Hi Kettle, you're black!) but, given the tame and tamer PPI, the knee jerk reaction was "buy 'em!" into tomorrow's all-but-guaranteed non-event. Just when you thought it was safe to click through to Matador City, however, Yahoo! messed the bed with soft guidance. That hit the stock for a quick 13%, pushed the NDX back under the 200-day, edged market breadth 2:1 negative (3:1 negative for tech) and cast a pall over the non-blonde Goldilocks.

  • The above mentioned reason will likely be assigned to the rhyme but the more daunting dynamic, from where I sit, is the specter of deflation (as measured by the punk commodity action and this morning's economic figures. It won't be obvious without the benefit of hindsight although, perhaps the crack in the CRB (a few weeks ago) may be just that.

  • The Cliff Branch, for the time being, are the folks from Duke & Duke. The brokers hold tough in a tape so rough and, while lower, are clinging to the all-important XBD 220 level.

  • The difference between "less inflation" and "deflation" is a matter of semantics. If we took a jump to the left (and then a step to the right), Goldilocks will quickly morph into three very bitter bears.

  • All is quiet on the CRB vs. Dollar front despite the smelting in the metal equities, which failed at the July lows (XAU 130) and will find support at the '06 lows (XAU 120).

  • Tricks of the Trade: If you're trading well and not making money, that's a likely sign to unwind some risk and play smaller. Everything is cyclical, including "feel."


R.P.

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Position in financials, energy, metals
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