A Chorus Line
By Todd Harrison Sep 16, 2003 3:17 pm
May peace be with you!
Sweet Calcutta rain
The song remains the same
Elmer's ride arrived in stride and left rates true and tried. Indeed, the song remains quite unchanged and the critters are left to dig through the text. It's no shocker that the Fed's goal is to remain accommodative--they've been quite clear on their agenda--the zillion dollar question is one of credibility. If you recall, Gray Davis, that was THE issue during the early summer swoon and remains the potential fly in the policy ointment.
The Minxy reaction was fickle and illiquid before settling back into the mode du jour. Despite the blink-and-ya-missed it mini-dip, the internal breadth didn't budge and the brokers held tough. As Hoofy and Boo stare each other in the eye, we're now well on the way to an upside try. Watch S&P 1020 (NDX 1350) as a support zone and S&P 1033 (NDX 1388) as the next resistance.
While we've discussed the acne in the all-important brokers, keep half an eye on the traditional banks. The piggies have lagged--in part, due to Bank of America (BAC:NYSE)--and need to pick up the pace if we're to truly race. BKX 850-900 is an uber-important range and the resolution (one way or the other) will go a long way in showing the way.
While Hump Day looms and plenty of actionable catalysts remain, I'd like to offer some quick perspective on market directive. It's entirely alright to form an opinion based on an assimilation of various inputs--we all do that, at some level, and identifying the proper guides is half the battle. I will simply offer that two-sided risks remain in the marketplace and we're each responsible for our own financial choices.
That thought was triggered as I watch the economic "pundits" on television report clear skies ahead. I was a guest on one of these commentator's show in December 2001 (when the market was ripping higher) and, at the time, he brazenly challenged me for having a negative bias. Eight months and 50% lower, the notion of a bear market didn't seem so foreign.
My point--and those that know me understand what I'm saying--is that everyone is wrong at times. While it certainly seems as if the upside momentum is building, the only person who will answer to you is you. Make smart and unemotional decisions and factor in all potential outcomes (while leaving room for a margin for error). At the end of the day, you're the one who will reap the benefit or burden.
Minyan Neal Greenberg ends the day on top of the leader board with two and a half days remaining in the animated auction. I know a few Minyans are lurking in the corners and Friday's high noon cut-off should be interesting! Either way, the real winner will be the kids as a broad range of children's charities will benefit from the Minyan generosity. At the end of the day, that's the best profit there is.
Have a peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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