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Random Thoughts

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Taking it to the Street

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  • I went do the Doc for a stress test today. Ironic really, as it was the least stressful morning I can remember.

  • While NDX 1630 (the 200-day) is below our feet, for now, S&P 1330 should prove problematic for the old school, particularly with stochastics toppy as they are.

  • This kinda sums up the banks.

  • Did you see Pepe's mention of Minyan Joe Acevado's NY Mets indicator? I wonder if anyone wants to juxtapose those findings against the NY Yankees and their 26 world championships since 1913 (vs. broader market trends).

  • I'm telling you baby, that's not mine!

  • We've been talking about pension obligations, fiscal imbalances and the erosion of the middle class for quite some time. Tell the folks at Ford (F) that the market is trading strong and see how they respond. Sad stuff indeed.

  • I spy an XAU Snapper.

  • Walkin' over and limpin' back? Yeah, it's been a long week---and an emotional one at that--and it feels as alotta folks are looking forward for our requisite two-day respite. I know I am.

  • BankAmerica, Goldman and Lehman are a bit laggy after their torrid affair this week. I can't blame 'em for being tired but I am keepin' an eye on 'em as tape tells into the bell.

  • Where are we in the "denial-migration-panic" process for the broad market? How about for commodities? And how will those two disparate dynamics "settle" with one another?

  • Is there a "Canadian Florida?"

  • Note Braaaaaaaaaaaazil as its all of a sudden getting waxed (-50 bips).

  • Or they can just buy puts.

  • Did I here a niner in there? The VXO is off 4% and flirting with a ten handle again.

  • MVHQ attended the Special Olympics Duck Race last night as we represented the Minyanville community and their incredible effort. I gotta tell you, I was stressed out about business as we trekked to the Seaport and, once there, felt pretty silly about allowing myself to get so worked up. Indeed, if our greatest struggle tickers and flicks, we should consider ourselves pretty fortunate.

  • This woulda saved me alotta money back in the day.

  • I didn't mind the doctor this morning--not even the needles--but the EKG has left me with a 40-year old virginesque chest hair pattern. Seriously.

  • Finally, this is a heckuva smart Buzz by my pal Bennet Sedacca:

    While all of the stars haven't aligned perfectly, they are beginning to. As you may know, my firm has called ourselves 'invested bears'. Well, we still are but now to a much lesser extent in selling much of our IVW (large cap ETF) position at the yearly highs.

    Can the market go higher? Of course it can. To me, the risk/reward ratio is simply deteriorating to the extent that the downside risk now feels much greater than the upside potential.

    I would note the following:
    • Sentiment is now heading towards 'extreme optimism'.
    • The seasonal pattern that everyone was positioned for and got wiped out with is now the pain trade but in reverse. In other words, people have seemingly given up hope on the September low theory.
    • We think this pushes seasonality out to the future once everyone closes out the losing positions
    • Inflationary forces are being replaced with deflationary forces.
    • Valuations are silly again.
    • Volatility at ridiculous levels.

Etc etc etc etc etc. I could ramble on for 5 pages but will resist the temptation. I will note that sentiment towards gold and oil are heading for extremes too. So we will add to our GLD position as a deflationary hedge.

Lastly, buy low sell high! What the market knows is not worth knowing and of course, sell when you can not when you have to! I hope that sums it up. Not advice, just what what we see.

  • Deep breaths and lets bring it home, Minyans--we're almost there.



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