By Todd Harrison Sep 15, 2004 3:02 pm
From our family to yours--all the very best!
The bottles stand as empty, as they were filled before.
Time there was and plenty, but from that cup no more.
Though I could not caution all, I still might warn a few:
Don't lend your hand to raise no flag atop no ship of fools.
There's a soft crimson breeze in the afternoon seas as the bulls hold on tight and the bears try to please. The tenor of the tape has been "down but..." all day as most folks are viewing this soft patch as transitory (how ironic!). To be sure, the damage could be worse given the overnight news but that remains an open-ended question. Is this an opportunity to bail or a signal to sail? Things that make you go hmm....
The dichotomy between the S&P and NASDAQ has been a long-running story (as evidenced by the YTD performance of the semis vs. the trannies). Traders tried to regress that mean in the last few sessions as the biggest bang for the buck has always been of the four-letter variety (save the homies). We know the name of the game--relative performance--and a whole lotta traders from Red Dye have already jumped the fence. Hence, if the mo'mo'go'go' emerges, that "flexibility" will be rewarded. If not, they were shaken and faken by the minxy sirens.
Away from the equity fray, the dollar is making another push towards the all-important DXY 90 level, fixed income is givin' back some of its love, crude--which nose-dived from the jaw-bone--is grinding back higher and observant traders have already started to hit the eject button. Along those lines, I'm gonna scoot near the bell so I can find a suit (that fits) and join my family for the important stuff. I'll be doin' the same tomorrow and will leave the 'Ville in the capable hands of my fellow professors.
Keep an eye on S&P 1120 as "a" level (trendline from the Auggie lows) and S&P 1113-15 as "the" level (200-day). I continue to sense that too many traders are gaming the "inevitable" election rally and a sharp reversal may be the path of maximum frustration. I'm not sure if that's "right here, right now" stuff or if we need further rippage to suck in the last bear standing. And in the interest of full disclosure, I'll also admit that nothing would surprise me anymore. The stock market is the world's biggest thermometer and that fact isn't lost on our friends in Washington.
That's about it from where I sit as I watch contra-hour come to a close. I would like to offer sincere wishes for a healthy, happy and peaceful new year to those observing and give a special shout out to our Middle East Minyans. I've heard some horror stories from that region and agree that the world is a pretty scary place. There's no reason why we can't turn the corner and make this world a better place for our children. If we each did our part each day--starting with simple kindness--it would be a heckuva start!
Fare ye well into the bell and may peace be with you.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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