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Random Thoughts


Now we've got everyone up in Arms!

  • "Life is a series of experiences, each one of which makes us bigger, even though sometimes it is hard to realize this. For the world was built to develop character, and we must learn that the setbacks and grieves which we endure help us in our marching onward." ~ Henry Ford

  • Indian giver!

  • "There was distributive price action on the SPX Tuesday, with a marginal increase in volume. The NASDAQ fared better, but not substantially. Breadth indications were modestly negative, but failed to reach our ever critical -3:1 level. The hourly charts have been flirting with overbought conditions and momentum divergences for a few days, and we suspect (hope) this is nothing more than the market's reflection of these short-term momentum indications. The 1218 level represents the low price from the last acceleration day on the SPX. Healthy markets under accumulation will usually hold the lows of those days. A break below that level implies a deeper test of the range (back to the 1200 area)." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • "This article was written by an old mate, David Morgan, back in 2002. It is well worth revisiting." -- Professor Laurie McGuirk.

  • Here's an idea-let's give Phoebe a glock and Zoë some pliers and let them get medieval on this fella.

  • "Housing un-hotline: The San Diego Union Trib this morning reports that according to DataQuick, San Diego - which led Southern California in housing price increases - could be leading the region in slowing appreciation that for August was almost FLAT with a year ago. The story further points out that the rest of the region, which is still showing double-digit increases, should follow on the way down just as it did on the way up. (This would appear to fit with "the air is slowly leaking" theory of the balloon)." -- Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch on today's Buzz.

  • Wachovia's CEO doesn't see a housing bubble.

  • Please keep in mind that there is a magnet towards S&P 1225 (into Friday) as a function of open interest in the S&P options.

  • Elmer's last stand?

  • "Dick Arms is getting increasingly bullish on Gold and Gold stocks. Specifically he mentioned that Newmont Mining's (NEM) move today above prior high reinforces his bullish position. He is not excited about the overall market, he thinks we will just continue on the back and forth motion we've been experiencing lately. Longer term bearish, short-term neutral." -- Minyan AW

  • Checking in at the Roach Motel

  • Now she's a Minyan!

  • Erica BIDU is eating a smoked turkey sandwich for lunch (-20%).

  • I cannot tell a lie...

  • Expiration undercurrents typically manifest in the days in front of (rather than the actual) expiration.

  • Many thanks to Minyan Bob Brooks for having me on his Prudent Money radio show yesterday. If you'd like to have a listen, click here.

  • Just give him the finger!

  • Minyans may not agree with this sober assessment but it's a missive that must be shared. If our goal is to see all sides of the probability spectrum, I'll let each of you assign your own odds as to whether this has the potential to come to bear.

  • "Based on hourly charts, oil's recent spike is an important peak. Moreover, the latest decline, 11.6% so far, is the most since early May and came from a price point that had a "high order" and was significantly diverged on all time scales. As well, the news backdrop, generally speaking, could not have been more bullish for oil, suggesting that psychology behind the run up has reached a point of exhaustion. Should oil turn as the indicators are suggesting, that would pretty much mean that almost the entire investable universe of financial assets has potentially formed, or will shortly form, a major peak and enter into a deflationary cycle. The two potential targets for oil in the short run are $58 +/- and $55." -- Scott Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • Tell me about it, Stud!

  • You think Macke has checked under the cushions yet?

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows bullish sentiment climbed to 53.2% from 52.1% prior while Boo's crew of bears fell to 26.6% from 28.1% prior.

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