By Todd Harrison Sep 14, 2004 3:37 pm
Have a peaceful evening.
- Sometimes we tend to out-think ourselves. Case in point the current juncture--we're uber-extended on a number of technical fronts and volatility levels are at multi-year lows (complacency). As those inputs make the rounds, however, the contrarians are taking the other side of the other side (follow?). When (if) your thought process becomes convoluted, take a step back and clear the mechanism. It's important that YOU are lucid and mindful of how you're interpreting the information flow.
- Mental illness remains the most misunderstood and mistreated ailment in the world. Rather than properly address the issue, our system either funnels the sick into jails or--worse--back onto the street. The next time you see a homeless person talking to themselves, try buying them a sandwich rather than snickering as you pass. A random act of kindness can go an awfully long way.
- My sense is that a ton of folks (on either side of the fence) will steer clear of the polls this year as a function of their choices (or lack thereof). That seems to be the roadmap for the incumbents as the populous right outweighs the liberal left. If the middle muddles, as it seems to be, we'll likely see Dubya dig in for four more years. That's not a political opinion as much as an observation.
- Oracle (ORCL:NASD) and Xilinx (XLNX:NASD) will be the litmus test for tomorrow's tech. While we're staring squarely into the jaws of resistance, the benefit of the doubt remains in Matador City. It's funny--for a market that is down over 4% on the year (NASDAQ)--including outright smokage in the semis--it feels as if Hoofy has held home field advantage for the majority of the year.
- I got two separate calls today from friends who have an immediate family member suffering from a health crisis. There's not much you can say to offer solace other than to urge them to be strong and steady for the other members of their clan. I'm not telling you this to bum you out--rather, I want you to keep things in perspective. Take a good look at those around you and feel fortunate that you aren't the one's having to make those calls.
- Media is--without doubt--the single most powerful industry in the world. It shapes public opinion and crafts the collective thought process. I've learned a lot over the last couple of years as Minyanville emerges as a "voice." There is a "status quo" that doesn't like change and the "channels" are protected in a way you couldn't possibly imagine. Think about it--very few people dictate what the world sees and hears. Penetrating that circle is a daunting--but not impossible--task.
- The longer we migrate around current levels, the more folks will buy into the market (quite literally). It's a function of human emotion, relative performance and other people's money. There is an inherent belief in the financial industry that it's alright to lose money as long as other people are losing more. When the benchmark averages improve, most managers are compelled to invest as they fear being left behind. I understand the "game" but I'm fairly certain that most folks wouldn't be so cavalier if their own money was on the line.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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