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Random Thoughts


Trailing stops offer smart risk/reward.


  • "Never before have real house prices been rising so fast in so many countries."

  • Lemming tell you something, Mang...

  • My bad. Does North Korea have volcanoes?

  • "Today, on September 13, 1789, New York City banks made their first loans to the U.S. Government...and we have been borrowing, and debasing the dollar, ever since." Minyan Jeff Saut.

  • Long squeeze!

  • The NDX 200-day moving average (NDX 1440)--which broke in July after failing to hold NDX 1450--is quickly approaching. These levels typically--but don't always--offer staunch resistance when reached during an overbought condition.

  • The SOX is up 14% in three sessions. Remember what they said about the most vicious rallies occurring in a bear market?

  • Meanwhile, at the Roach Motel.

  • After week one, the Champ Bailey/Clinton Portis trade is a push.....they both looked great.

  • I've come to measure years in terms of Septembers.

  • Along those lines, it was a little tough at times this weekend but I focused my energies on cleaning out my many closets and donating almost ten boxes of clothes and shoes to the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. THAT made me feel much better, as giving to those less fortunate typically will.

  • Who said money was easy?

  • "Very little has changed in our indicators over the last week. Momentum remains positive and trends have moderated back to neutral. There have been no signs of accumulation up to this point, as volume flows continue to reflect a docile attitude. Our Master Sentiment Indicator is neutral, but we are seeing commercial hedgers liquidate long positions into strength on the SPX. This data incorporates a dollar weighted contract and includes mini's, it is now under its 1-std deviation band, a modest negative signal." -Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers

  • Crude is up 3.25%.

  • The piggies are the fly in today's ointment as they're A) extended and B) unable to mount BKX 100. I opined (this morning on the Buzz) that the jiggy wig in the semi space MAY turn (and trap the chasers) although they've shown no sign of slippage yet. Still, if (big if) they do reverse, expect to see the financials weigh on the fray.

  • Nobody said it was gonna be easy.

  • I was almost tossed from the sports bar when Gannon connected on that 4th and 12 to (effectively) tie the game. I quieted considerably when the Steelers marched down the field to kick the winning field goal. And, for the record, I'm still short Charles Woodson...

  • Noice feel Professor Reynolds (again).

  • Breadth has edged towards a 2:1 positive posture.

  • Nets. Semis. Biotechs. Beta.

  • Emotion is the enemy when trading. It's important to remember that during sessions like this.

  • It'll likely get a tad thinner towards the end of the week as the Jewish holidays kick in.

  • Tech catalysts on the horizon: Oracle (ORCL:NASD) reports tomorrow and Xilinx (XLNX:NASD) will offer their mid-quarter update.

  • Thanks for the support on Friday. It's much appreciated.

  • You'll never make as much as you want and always lose more than you should.

  • Snaps to Minyan Michael Santoli for his always fantastic weekend scribes.

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