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Random Thoughts


I just think we're on borrowed time (and borrowed funds) and, no matter how much I try to rationalize the trade, I can't seem to digest it in good conscience.

  • For all you gold bugs, keep an eye on $594 as it's the 200-day moving average for the physical. It's only touched this level once since 2005 and snapped sharply higher as a result. Of course, we've seen alotta new developments in commodity land that may render that thought obsolete.

  • Heck, between Syrian attacks, record trade deficits and continuing Iranian games, you'd think that the yellow metal would tack on more than a buck, eh?

  • The SOX (remember the 'dry' action in the semicaps?) and stock jocks (brokers) stand out today, with both posting two percent gains.

  • There goes the CRB, back in Red Dye once again as crude's crimson tide (-75 bips) pulls the energy patch lower.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo: Based on your 11:18 post, are you dusting off the bear costume? Thanks, Minyan Wendy."

    Minyan Wendy,

    Funny you should ask, because my last dalliance with the fur was in and out precisely at these levels. That was a few weeks ago and the market has been a haphazard spin ever since. In fact, while bears will be bears and bulls will be bulls, the tape has been the definition of mental, masterminding ever since.

    To answer your question, with the notable exception of Citi and some money center-laggage, there isn't much for Boo to lean on in today's action. Breadth, leadership, technical levels--as much as my gut says that sales will be more profitable than buys at these levels, it may not be today's business. So, I'm nibblin', tuckin' and altogether duckin' until I see a more advantageous risk/reward evolve.

    I will say this---the lack of any jig in the CRB is noticeable. And again, while it may not be today's business, we may look back and point to this as the obvious tell that something is seriously amiss.

  • T-minus two days until a very Special Olympic Duck Race. Team Minyan is currently in second place (behind a surging Starwood squad) but alas, there are only winners in this race.

  • The trannies, by my eye, are still churning under TRAN 4400.

  • I never thought I was a negative nabbie---I mean, seriously, I stand to gain a lot (as do we all) from a strong, durable rally. I just think we're on borrowed time (and borrowed funds) and, no matter how much I try to rationalize the trade, I can't seem to digest it in good conscience.

  • That doesn't mean we won't see spurts and squirts---it just means that I'll likely rent (the upside) rather than own.

  • December 1st, Minyans. December 1st.


Position in metals, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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