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Random Thoughts

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I just think we're on borrowed time (and borrowed funds) and, no matter how much I try to rationalize the trade, I can't seem to digest it in good conscience.

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  • For all you gold bugs, keep an eye on $594 as it's the 200-day moving average for the physical. It's only touched this level once since 2005 and snapped sharply higher as a result. Of course, we've seen alotta new developments in commodity land that may render that thought obsolete.

  • Heck, between Syrian attacks, record trade deficits and continuing Iranian games, you'd think that the yellow metal would tack on more than a buck, eh?

  • The SOX (remember the 'dry' action in the semicaps?) and stock jocks (brokers) stand out today, with both posting two percent gains.

  • There goes the CRB, back in Red Dye once again as crude's crimson tide (-75 bips) pulls the energy patch lower.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag



    "Toddo: Based on your 11:18 post, are you dusting off the bear costume? Thanks, Minyan Wendy."

    Minyan Wendy,

    Funny you should ask, because my last dalliance with the fur was in and out precisely at these levels. That was a few weeks ago and the market has been a haphazard spin ever since. In fact, while bears will be bears and bulls will be bulls, the tape has been the definition of mental mastur....er, masterminding ever since.


    To answer your question, with the notable exception of Citi and some money center-laggage, there isn't much for Boo to lean on in today's action. Breadth, leadership, technical levels--as much as my gut says that sales will be more profitable than buys at these levels, it may not be today's business. So, I'm nibblin', tuckin' and altogether duckin' until I see a more advantageous risk/reward evolve.

    I will say this---the lack of any jig in the CRB is noticeable. And again, while it may not be today's business, we may look back and point to this as the obvious tell that something is seriously amiss.

  • T-minus two days until a very Special Olympic Duck Race. Team Minyan is currently in second place (behind a surging Starwood squad) but alas, there are only winners in this race.

  • The trannies, by my eye, are still churning under TRAN 4400.

  • I never thought I was a negative nabbie---I mean, seriously, I stand to gain a lot (as do we all) from a strong, durable rally. I just think we're on borrowed time (and borrowed funds) and, no matter how much I try to rationalize the trade, I can't seem to digest it in good conscience.

  • That doesn't mean we won't see spurts and squirts---it just means that I'll likely rent (the upside) rather than own.

  • December 1st, Minyans. December 1st.


R.P.

Position in metals, financials
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