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Random Thoughts


It's hard to believe that it's been five years since that fateful day and, by extension, five years since we broke ground on Minyanville.

  • What the Duck!?!? Starwood has pulled ahead of Team Minyan to take the lead in Thursday's Special Olympics duck race. $650 du, er, bucks? Are we really gonna let them get away with that?!?

  • While the CRB (-2% and at new '06 lows) is broken---a dynamic we've been tracking for some time--I used the morning smelt to nibble on some faves in the metal space (such as Golden Star (GSS) for the long-term side of my pad). Still, select commodities are being taken out and shot as Silver is off 8% and copper, gold and natural gas are 4% lower.

  • And yes, if the 'asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation' theme is indeed in tact, equities should continue to shoulder supply.

  • Still, pockets of strength remain. The semis are stubborn (SOX +1.5%), the homies flipped the upside switch and those pesky, frisky, tricky, sticky money center banks don't fold (JPM and Citi in particular). BKX 109ish is still a pretty important level for the piggies, if and when, as is BKX 114.

  • I can't imagine this is what he expected when he pressed the "auto pilot" button.

  • Market breadth, once again, leaves much to be desired. Sinners are trumping winners 2:1 across the board.

  • "The RJ CRB Index of 17 broad based commodities has lost its momentum with a monthly stochastic oscillator dropping from an extreme overbought condition to below 50. This has only happened 4 times since 1982. In each instance, the RJ CRB Index lost further ground from peak and averaged a loss of 19% over the following 28.5 months." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • Keep in mind that September expiration arrives on Friday and, given the "negative gamma" in the marketplace (read: dealers are short premium), we could and should expect an exacerbation of volatility.

  • Vice President Dick Cheney marked the fifth anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks telling Americans that, although the country went to war in Iraq on false intelligence and he had misjudged the Iraqi insurgency, he would do it all again. Please forgive my lack of commentary on this subject as I'm at a complete loss for words.

  • You Be Sellin! UBS raised its S&P 500 target to 1450, saying it expects a broad based rally by the end of the year, and sees the Industrials, Financials and Healthcare as the most attractive sectors. The firm is also positive on Tech, remains cautious on Consumer Discretionary and is less positive on Integrated Energy.

  • Pepe Depew wrote a fantastic "must read" Buzz this morning on the topic of "correlation does not mean causation." It's a familiar theme in the 'Ville but it can't be stressed enough. Not when most mainstream channels continue to pound the table on its viability.

  • "The S&P 500 is clearly into resistance at the 1300 – 1320 area, near-term momentum is weakening, and a daily negative divergence developed recently as the push to 1315 on September 5th was unconfirmed. We don't put a ton of weight on daily divergences (i.e., we believe weekly divergences are more important), but with volume continuing to be light we still believe a pullback for the S&P/the market is more likely than a push to a new high above 1326.7. Also, there is a minor pick-up in the 10-day moving average of NYSE new lows. Such action usually says aggressive investors can start looking for shorts. Meanwhile, less aggressive investors should expect that a big move up for the market is not likely unless new highs expand. At present that's not happening." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Meanwhile, away from the stateside ride, Brazil is down a deuce (2%), TRF (the Templeton Russia Fund) is off 5% and Europe is hanging marginally lower (less than one percent).

  • Hey look, the Raiders are in first place! (you better look quick!)

  • The VXO is up a (very) quiet 9% as it recaptures teen status.

  • The XAU? 6% lower. Yes, six percent. If you look up "false breakout" in Websters, you may very well find a picture of XAU 150.

  • Many thanks for the kind vibes on the heels of my morning opener. It's hard to believe that it's been five years since that fateful day and, by extension, five years since we broke ground on Minyanville. May peace be with you all.


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position metals, financials, gss, jpm
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