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Random Thoughts


Let's work together to help those in need.

  • Can you imagine waking up next to this?

  • While sitting at the Circle of Trust dinner in Ojai with the savvy soothsaying sommelier Jeff Saut of Raymond James, my fork actually stopped on its way to my mouth as he opined that "future wars will be fought over water, not oil." I'm unsure if he was embellishing to prove a point but it certainly worked. He's been on that boat for a while (and the water plays have performed quite nicely) and the tragedy down south serves to support this secular dynamic. Prescient observation, Jeff, although I know that you'd prefer that human suffering wasn't part of the equation.

  • Mr. Bernanke's assertion that "a flat yield curve is a vote of confidence in the Federal Reserve" serves to solidify my view that his inevitable appointment will be the fire to Elmer's frying pan.

  • Pondered at Succofest: "If losing a city is an economic positive, would leveling the country take the DJIA to 50,000?"

  • Critters Care: We all have a lot going on. I know it, you know it and the critters know it. The world is a wily place these days and our natural instinct is to take care of ourselves and our family first. That's understood and encouraged (we gotta be here to help) but we must also reach into our hearts to assist those less fortunate. Please help us help those suffering from Katrina. It's the right thing to do and it doesn't take much to make a difference. It is, after all, the Minyan way. Thanks kindly in advance.

  • Brace yourself for civil unrest. It's an unfortunate but inevitable aftermath of the Gulf Coast displacement.

  • Headline Risk!: DJ US ISM: Overall Econ, Mfg Shows "Significant Growth."

  • If Y2K ushered in the new era information age, I can't help but wonder when we slipped into the disinformation age. The incessant jaw boning and assurances by the powers that be have edged beyond rhetoric. It's actually sounding a bit desperate. We were in a tough spot before Katrina swallowed a major city and spiked input prices. I'm not smart enough to say whether this will manifest today but our already fragile footing has become increasingly slick. Respect the price action but don't defer to it, Minyans. And whatever you do, base your decisions on what you believe and how you feel. At the end of the day, we're all responsible for our own financial choices and actions speak louder than words.

  • Be careful not to read too much into "historical extrapolations" as we wade through an unprecedented event.

  • The piggies got sizzled on their first true try through BKX 98. But the brokers are laughing all the way to the bank.

  • Gasoline in Atlanta is $5 to $6 per gallon?

  • The dollar continues to drip and the metals tighten their grip. Is the leadership baton officially being handed off?

  • Deep breath, please, this is no time for emotional decisions.

  • Fear? The VXO isn't even a teenager yet. I remember trading on the heels of the Thai Bhat debacle when the VIX was 60ish. Just a lil' perspective...

  • I'm trying with all my might to justify a road trip with Fish to Foxboro to watch my Raiders take on the Pats. We both know that in 20 years, the memory of the game will linger while "just another Thursday night in the office" will blend into our subconscious. Still, with a "best case" four hour journey to and from the festivities, I just don't think we can pull it off.

  • Will anyone be around tomorrow to provide liquidity?

  • Trying to figure a potential trigger: Will "forced liquidations" by the insurance companies (to cover the costs of Katrina) be the lead domino?

  • Energy and metals continue to jockey the leadership baton as we find our way through the Thursday fray.

  • A perfect storm is brewing for the greenback. Yesterday's abysmal PMI brought the fragility of our economic "expansion" into focus. The rising toll of Katrina--coupled with the continued expense of the Iraq war--is bludgeoning our deficits. The Dollar Index has seemingly put in a double top under previous resistance. Succo and I mused last night that, for the incredible amount of liquidity that is being pumped into the system, nobody seems to have very much of it. That's because it's being used to service debt and pay off past parties.

  • While I'm notorious for being early in my market vibes, my timing when it comes to sneaking days away from the tape is impeccable. As such, and given the fact that I've made a personal and financial commitment, I'll force myself to enjoy the last weekend of the summer. I wish ye faithful well on what promises to be an interesting Friday ride.

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