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Random Thoughts

By

Tick tock...

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  • Goldilocks Gone Wild?

  • What did the five fingers say to the face?

  • The critter migration to Ojai continues.

  • Vibes from Snoop "I'll see you in Ojai" Tony Dwyer

    • "Near-term (ripple) - overbought condition created profit-taking more than anything else. We expect the correction could last a little bit but ultimately provide solid opportunity.

    • Intermediate-term (wave) - While recent economic data has been considered too strong, Fed Funds futures are already at 4% by year end and solid probability of 4.25 by 03/06. Recent ISM and Payrolls data needs to be put into perspective

    • Long-term (tide) - Earnings continue to surprise and revised higher, yield curve and real yields suggest further economic growth, inflation remains moderate and interestingly Fed Funds rate hikes could be welcomed."


  • There's a lot of speculation in Cisco (CSCO) options. Please be careful with volatilities pumped in front of earnings.

  • I am ready for some football!

  • "The back-up in rates has impacted the REITs and mortgage lenders most acutely. The yield curve looks more vulnerable as maturities lengthen with 2-yr notes in well defined uptrends, and 10-yr notes on the verge of breaking out. Interestingly, the majority of bears on housing appear to have given up in frustration, as the bearish anecdotes that abounded over the last 5-yrs have dissipated from our daily conversations. Let us not forget the recent Time magazine cover, the fact that the Fed is tightening credit conditions, and from a classical economics perspective "deflating" the value of those assets that were the primary benefactors of "easy" money. If there is any synchronization in world property markets, there is evidence of a cooling in the equally red-hot London property market. Whether this is the turn remains open to debate, but one of the more vulnerable areas appears to be the mortgage REITs." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • The gaudy Saudi oil spike.

  • There is a natural tendency for traders to migrate to pockets of volatility (Crude, Google, BIDU). Please be careful of falling into the "trader crack" trap.

  • I'll be joining General Fari Hamzei for a chat after the close today. Please click here if you'd like to join us for a group hug.

  • Today will be a tale of three tapes--posturing ahead of Elmer, the reaction thereafter and the Cisco disco after the close.

  • And here I thought this was Sammy's mating call!

  • Microsoft (MSFT), after a superhuman effort last week, is taking a breather. I continue to sense that $27.50 will be "sticky to the upside" for this 800 lb. gorilla.

  • Squeeze Play!

  • Please remember to put limits on your orders "around" the FOMC release. The last thing you want is an unpleasant fill ruining your thrill.

  • I can't vouch for the source but these are the types of vibes that can isolate Hoofy in a hurry.

  • Sharin' some Buzz...

    • Chopped Salad (10:32 AM)

      Hey Farley--hold the bacon and let's get shakin'! The Minx is a choppy affair this morning as the critters tetherball around the tape. True to turnaround Tuesday form, the action is a mirror's image of the recent scrimmage--the internals are buff, energy and metals are pink (slightly red) and--GASP!--the rate-sensitive arena isn't so, uh, sensitive.

      For what it's worth--and it may not be much--my sense is the green screens will be fleeting. The question is one of degree with regard to both time and price. You know the levels I'm watching (S&P 1234, NDX 1600 and BKX 100) so we'll vibe it together as the script unfolds.

      Best guess? A bit more upside before some chunky downside (S&P 1180/SOX 450?). But if the financials assume the leadership baton anew, I reserve the right to hop on a flight.

  • As always, I hope this finds you--and Mandy--well.

  • Coming soon to a theater near you.

  • With nine days left until MiM2, I was told late last night that five (5) rooms remain at the esteemed Ojai Valley Inn & Resort. As I know several folks have voiced a desire to join us in the mountains, I wanted to communicate the supply side of the equation.

  • Good luck with the muck, Minyans, and I'll see you on the other side of Elmer.


    R.P.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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