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Random Thoughts

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Tick tock...

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  • Goldilocks Gone Wild?

  • What did the five fingers say to the face?

  • The critter migration to Ojai continues.

  • Vibes from Snoop "I'll see you in Ojai" Tony Dwyer

    • "Near-term (ripple) - overbought condition created profit-taking more than anything else. We expect the correction could last a little bit but ultimately provide solid opportunity.

    • Intermediate-term (wave) - While recent economic data has been considered too strong, Fed Funds futures are already at 4% by year end and solid probability of 4.25 by 03/06. Recent ISM and Payrolls data needs to be put into perspective

    • Long-term (tide) - Earnings continue to surprise and revised higher, yield curve and real yields suggest further economic growth, inflation remains moderate and interestingly Fed Funds rate hikes could be welcomed."


  • There's a lot of speculation in Cisco (CSCO) options. Please be careful with volatilities pumped in front of earnings.

  • I am ready for some football!

  • "The back-up in rates has impacted the REITs and mortgage lenders most acutely. The yield curve looks more vulnerable as maturities lengthen with 2-yr notes in well defined uptrends, and 10-yr notes on the verge of breaking out. Interestingly, the majority of bears on housing appear to have given up in frustration, as the bearish anecdotes that abounded over the last 5-yrs have dissipated from our daily conversations. Let us not forget the recent Time magazine cover, the fact that the Fed is tightening credit conditions, and from a classical economics perspective "deflating" the value of those assets that were the primary benefactors of "easy" money. If there is any synchronization in world property markets, there is evidence of a cooling in the equally red-hot London property market. Whether this is the turn remains open to debate, but one of the more vulnerable areas appears to be the mortgage REITs." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • The gaudy Saudi oil spike.

  • There is a natural tendency for traders to migrate to pockets of volatility (Crude, Google, BIDU). Please be careful of falling into the "trader crack" trap.

  • I'll be joining General Fari Hamzei for a chat after the close today. Please click here if you'd like to join us for a group hug.

  • Today will be a tale of three tapes--posturing ahead of Elmer, the reaction thereafter and the Cisco disco after the close.

  • And here I thought this was Sammy's mating call!

  • Microsoft (MSFT), after a superhuman effort last week, is taking a breather. I continue to sense that $27.50 will be "sticky to the upside" for this 800 lb. gorilla.

  • Squeeze Play!

  • Please remember to put limits on your orders "around" the FOMC release. The last thing you want is an unpleasant fill ruining your thrill.

  • I can't vouch for the source but these are the types of vibes that can isolate Hoofy in a hurry.

  • Sharin' some Buzz...

    • Chopped Salad (10:32 AM)

      Hey Farley--hold the bacon and let's get shakin'! The Minx is a choppy affair this morning as the critters tetherball around the tape. True to turnaround Tuesday form, the action is a mirror's image of the recent scrimmage--the internals are buff, energy and metals are pink (slightly red) and--GASP!--the rate-sensitive arena isn't so, uh, sensitive.

      For what it's worth--and it may not be much--my sense is the green screens will be fleeting. The question is one of degree with regard to both time and price. You know the levels I'm watching (S&P 1234, NDX 1600 and BKX 100) so we'll vibe it together as the script unfolds.

      Best guess? A bit more upside before some chunky downside (S&P 1180/SOX 450?). But if the financials assume the leadership baton anew, I reserve the right to hop on a flight.

  • As always, I hope this finds you--and Mandy--well.

  • Coming soon to a theater near you.

  • With nine days left until MiM2, I was told late last night that five (5) rooms remain at the esteemed Ojai Valley Inn & Resort. As I know several folks have voiced a desire to join us in the mountains, I wanted to communicate the supply side of the equation.

  • Good luck with the muck, Minyans, and I'll see you on the other side of Elmer.


    R.P.
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