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The Moonlight Slam

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Turnaround Tuesday?

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"It's okay, honey. I... I was just talking to the cornfield."

Ray Kinsella, Field of Dreams


Good morning and welcome back to the money track. We got a fresh probe to start off the week as Boo's motley crew poked Hoofy's physique. The damage was light as damage can go with looming demand still nestled below. "A slow summer day," said Sammy the snake aware that most traders weren't awake, "but turnaround Tuesday should give us a shake as Elmer and Chambo get ready to bake!" Will the bulls dig in deep to rescue the sheep or will the bear scare continue to creep? We'll know soon enough as we hike up the hill and kick off our shoes for a romp through the 'Ville!

It's been a wacky few weeks in the city of critters as we ready for our mountain migration. As such, and with hat in hand, I'll need to invoke the laws of creative liberty as I scribe some vibe that I hope is helpful.

  • After spending a week with both feet firmly planted in my metaphorical bear costume, I quietly lifted a leg from the fur yesterday afternoon as we danced near S&P 1220. The decision was motivated by discipline and the notion that "trading in between" never hurts, particularly when you're playing with some profits.

  • Today will feature a tale of three tapes, with posturing into the 2:15 FOMC decision, reactive rationalization thereafter and the Cisco disco after the close. Before you step onto the field, please make sure that you've got an appropriate time horizon mapped out and risk-definition in place.

  • I continue to feel that the financials hold the key to the vault, a long-held belief that has found some resistance of late. While perhaps the most lucid thought I have is that energy will outpace the banks in the big picture, the manifestation will continue to weigh on the collective mindset as it comes to bear. Citigroup-oversold but broken down-remains a focus, as does BKX 100 which has quickly flipped from a floor to a ceiling.

  • What will Elmer say? The same thing he's been saying on our way to our tenth straight rate hike. He'll offer his steady hand of "economic expansion" and walk the tightrope between perception (legitimate growth) and reality (debt-induced demand). The trick to this trade, from where I stand, is remaining vigilant as we watch for a shift of perception.

  • My eyes will be flickering between the market internals (couldn't hold their footing yesterday), the smoked homies, S&P 1220, NDX 1600, BKX 98-100, energy (en fuego), the semis (SOX 450?) and the metals (there's something happenin' here). I will also be keeping a close eye on the blasts from the past (Chinese internet names) as, well, they're fun to watch (but dangerous to trade).

As the critters burn the candle at both ends (and I throw the whole ball of wax in the fire), I wanna thank you again for the patience and support. We're working around the clock to ensure a fantastic Festivus and while many Minyans can't attend--we've almost sold out the entire resort--we'll surely share the stories, themes, vibes and eyes from Ojai.

Our community is about "inclusivity" and if you're not with us in person, you'll surely be there in spirit. You have my word on that.

Good luck today.


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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