The Moonlight Slam
"It's okay, honey. I... I was just talking to the cornfield."
Ray Kinsella, Field of Dreams
Good morning and welcome back to the money track. We got a fresh probe to start off the week as Boo's motley crew poked Hoofy's physique. The damage was light as damage can go with looming demand still nestled below. "A slow summer day," said Sammy the snake aware that most traders weren't awake, "but turnaround Tuesday should give us a shake as Elmer and Chambo get ready to bake!" Will the bulls dig in deep to rescue the sheep or will the bear scare continue to creep? We'll know soon enough as we hike up the hill and kick off our shoes for a romp through the 'Ville!
It's been a wacky few weeks in the city of critters as we ready for our mountain migration. As such, and with hat in hand, I'll need to invoke the laws of creative liberty as I scribe some vibe that I hope is helpful.
- After spending a week with both feet firmly planted in my metaphorical bear costume, I quietly lifted a leg from the fur yesterday afternoon as we danced near S&P 1220. The decision was motivated by discipline and the notion that "trading in between" never hurts, particularly when you're playing with some profits.
- Today will feature a tale of three tapes, with posturing into the 2:15 FOMC decision, reactive rationalization thereafter and the Cisco disco after the close. Before you step onto the field, please make sure that you've got an appropriate time horizon mapped out and risk-definition in place.
- I continue to feel that the financials hold the key to the vault, a long-held belief that has found some resistance of late. While perhaps the most lucid thought I have is that energy will outpace the banks in the big picture, the manifestation will continue to weigh on the collective mindset as it comes to bear. Citigroup-oversold but broken down-remains a focus, as does BKX 100 which has quickly flipped from a floor to a ceiling.
- What will Elmer say? The same thing he's been saying on our way to our tenth straight rate hike. He'll offer his steady hand of "economic expansion" and walk the tightrope between perception (legitimate growth) and reality (debt-induced demand). The trick to this trade, from where I stand, is remaining vigilant as we watch for a shift of perception.
- My eyes will be flickering between the market internals (couldn't hold their footing yesterday), the smoked homies, S&P 1220, NDX 1600, BKX 98-100, energy (en fuego), the semis (SOX 450?) and the metals (there's something happenin' here). I will also be keeping a close eye on the blasts from the past (Chinese internet names) as, well, they're fun to watch (but dangerous to trade).
As the critters burn the candle at both ends (and I throw the whole ball of wax in the fire), I wanna thank you again for the patience and support. We're working around the clock to ensure a fantastic Festivus and while many Minyans can't attend--we've almost sold out the entire resort--we'll surely share the stories, themes, vibes and eyes from Ojai.
Our community is about "inclusivity" and if you're not with us in person, you'll surely be there in spirit. You have my word on that.
Good luck today.
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