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Random Thoughts

By

Today feels like a Tuesday appetizer!

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  • All-star guitar signee Bill Gross weighs in on the hedge fund bubble.

  • Citigroup (C:NYSE) $42.5 was triple support last summer and a level to monitor as we trade ahead. The 'big toe' is currently grasping for traction after this morning's acquisition announcement (Knight Trading (NITE:NASD) derivatives) wasn't as big as feared.

  • Calling all raisins!

  • Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder--who has been white hot--offers the following vibe in his morning missive: "Despite the bearish action last Thursday and Friday, the market's still NOT oversold based on some of the more important indicators we maintain. For example, since '98, nearly all good oversolds have occurred when the DJIA and S&P were at least 10% below their 200-day moving average. As of Friday's close, the DJIA and S&P were only 4% below their 200-day (the NASDAQ is 10% below the 200-day but typically registers more extreme readings)."

  • Lehman's Jeff DeGraff echoed that view with four bullet points in his Monday piece: 1) Sentiment is not reflecting concern on the part of the market. The concern that exists seems to be focused on temporary, non-systemic factors within the economy. 2) Price volatility has not risen to levels consistent with stress. 3) No deep compelling oversold condition exists (as an example 39% of the SPX is above their own 200-day moving average) 4) Volume is not spiking, a sign suggesting the cathartic cleansing of weak-hands has not yet developed.

  • The Saturday Philly show was strong as they played faves Casey Jones, Ripple, Uncle John's Band, China/Rider and, in tribute to Snapper, Terrapin Station. It felt good to shake my old bones!

  • Monday breadth is flat and sappy.

  • Three of our four primary metrics (fundies, technicals, psychology) still have plenty of room on the downside. The fourth (structural) likely holds the key to our near-term fortunes.

  • Billy Meehan--you're stopped out!

  • Oil is getting very popular as a topic of discussion. Could a near-term top be too far away?

  • I can almost picture Hoofy hiding in a hospital gown.

  • I will be out next week as I ready for the massive Minyanville migration to Crested Butte.

  • Elmer is caught between a rock (the economy) and a hard place (rates).

  • The VXO (volatility index) is down 7% after spiking higher last week. And yes, as a teenager, we're still a long way from traditional "bungee" fear.

  • Brazil 1.5% lower and eyeing Bovespa 21k again (50- and 200-day support).

  • Are you ready for some football?

    R.P.
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