Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Minyan Mailbag - Economy


Maybe the market was held enough as a child?!?


Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue amoung the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.


The economy is no longer about GDP it's about an historic split between the corporate and consumer/housing sectors. The 2001/2002 recession was the ONLY modern era recession when consumer spending and housing did not have a recession. The consumer/construction recession has been delayed until now. The job growth number is signaling the inevitable slowdown in consumer and construction spending. Using previous business cycles as a template, if we break out the consumer and housing components the next six months should slow rapidly and the "consumer/housing" recession should end 12-18 months from now - at which point the economy can then rebound.

  • These factors were outlined months ago in the written piece I sent you.

  • Interest rates are no longer about "the Fed" - in this environment they will be about the deficit. In which case this is a great place to finally initiate long-term bond shorts (not advice).

  • Stagflation as a theme is growing in our studies. If you wish - we can update the chart previously sent.

Bottom line: the rate of change in recognition of a consumer/construction slowdown should increase quickly. This will surprise markets until they adjust to that reality.

Hope this finds you well. Keep up the great work. Sorry I can't join you in the Mountains - but maybe in NYC in September if you are free.

All the best,

Minyan Andreas Calianos

Minyan Andreas-

Thanks, as always, for offerin' your take.



No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Featured Videos