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More Random Thoughts!

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Good luck Minyans!

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  • Our collective dependency on technology is scary. My systems are still down but, thanks to that thing called "fax," I've been able to get some posts out.

  • NDX 1240ish is a big level. It was previous support (July 3rd and July 21st) AND it's the 50-day moving average.

  • I think Jan and Marsha should wrestle Blue in a K-Y grudge match!

  • Strive to be happy. (Dan Meehan)

  • Bullish elements: we saw a lot of "pressing" by the shorts last night, Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) and the BKX are about to give a stochastic buy signals, the rate flush (although, I would argue that this volatility is NOT good for the financials), S&P 965 held (the first time), Dow 9000 held, we're entering a quiet period (psychology rules), the tape rallied without Cisco (CSCO:NASD).

  • Bearish elements: The bull camp is (still) crowded, the NDX trendline was violated, the famed second half recovery is MIA, Elmer's got credibility issues, good news is baked into these levels, the multiyear head & shoulders is textbook, the internals have steadily deteriorated, there have been lower highs with each successive rally try, there's huge negative gamma in the marketplace (see below).

  • We've seen a TON of put selling (to open) by dealers today as they try to "capture" this latest pop in the VIX. If we begin to spill anew, that's gonna create a vacuum on the downside.

  • This has been a very frustrating day but you know what? It could be worse. I just got a call from a friend who asked me what time Angie's memorial service is tomorrow. Suddenly, system problems don't seem like such a big deal.

  • Do I still think rallies should be sold? Yes, I do...but there are reasons why the market could rally (see above).


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