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The Eagle Eye Fleagle


Turnaround is fair play!


Well, baby, there you stand
with your little head down in your hand.
Oh my God, you can't believe it's happening again.
Your baby's gone and you're all alone and it looks like the end.

(The Eagles)

The afternoon grip is starting to slip as the stormin' seas rock the Minxy ship. Virtually every sector is dressed in red and judging from the individual price action, one would think that the overall damage would be markedly worse. That, of course, leads to the natural question: Who's zoomin' who? Is the relative traction in the indices a sign of greener pastures or an opportunity to boot and scoot?

The deck is stacked against the bulls on a number of levels. Fear is non-existent (we've discussed the negative divergence in the VXO), nobody had $44 crude in their models, fundies are decelerating, rates are rising, tensions will continue through the elections and lotsa leaders are being taken out and shot. The lone danger for the ursine uglies is that Elmer will continue to flood the mud with easy money. It's happened before and the bulls are betting that they'll be able to whistle past (yet another) graveyard.

Equities continue to struggle but, again, it could be a lot worse. With the breadth this bad, crude this rude and the lethargy this uniform, Hoofy should be happy that he's looking at losing a percent across the board (don't blink!). The obvious levels are S&P 1080 on the big board at NDX 13....oops, there it is. The NDX has made a new low for '04 and while they can still grasp to a branch (in front of a potentially binary event), it's hard to spin this as a positive development.

The Iron Horse has penned a phenomenal roadmap for tomorrow's orange crop report and if you haven't read it, you're doing yourself a disservice. It's smart, sharp and consistent with the vision of Minyanville. We don't wanna tell you what to do--there's plenty of that on the Street--we simply wanna give you the tools to make better and more informed decisions for yourself.

I've gotta hop as the ticks are flickering a bit quicker. There's a whole heckuva lot going on these days (slow summer what?) and, as always, I gotta thank ye faithful for coming to play every day. We're in the early innings of building something very powerful and none of it would be possible without folks like you. Have a peaceful easy feeling tonight and we'll circle back tomorrow morning.

Fare ye well.

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