By Todd Harrison Aug 05, 2004 9:02 am
Just have your people call my people and we'll do lunch at the Ivy!
If I got to choose a coast I got to choose the East
I live out there, so don't go there
But that don't mean a tradda can't rest in the West
See some nice guests in the West
Good morning and welcome to the redeye try. It was an uber-quick trip to the left coast tip and the critters return with a much looser grip. "We were running and meeting and spreading the word," said Daisy so dizzy her vision was blurred, "by the time we were finished I actually heard that I was the critter that most men preferred!" No shocker, I know, as she's the real deal but there's more to the 'Ville than her milky appeal. Early this morning, while collectively yawning, the critters shared a few minxy vibes . It went a little something like this:
Hoofy: So, from what I understand, the Minx failed to follow through on the Monday moxie and melted with the Tuesday chip dip. When the bears tried to press their bet over the hump, crude reversed sharply lower and once again emboldened the bulls. Does that pretty much sum it up?
Sammy: In a simplistic jet-lagged way, yes, and there is a lot of posturing in front of tomorrow's payroll data. Traders are somewhat confused and seem to be trading more reactive than usual. It's important for them to remember that all these data points--fundamental, structural, psychological or technical--combine to craft the actual price action. So, while Beek's peek is important, it's but one ingredient in a much larger stew.
Boo: In the meantime, we've worked off the oversold condition and have since failed directly at the S&P 200-day moving average. Same story with XBD 120 and BKX 96. Until these levels give way, there's really no reason for me to worry about an upside flurry.
Daisy: (looking in the mirror) It's very thin, baby, very thin. (Turns and looks at Sammy.) And that sparse liquidity usually means that the tape can trade "gappier" than normal, right?
Sammy: Yes, it's seasonally slow in the summer but with the election looming, crude booming and the geopolitical landscape as fragile as it is, those that are manning the cons must stay on their toes. Just remember, fellas, that boredom is not an actionable catalyst for risk assumption. There should be a compelling (or defined) risk/reward dynamic to each position on your trading sheets.
Hoofy: I'm gonna be watching crude for signs of further slippage. If that happens (and combines with the tight corporates spreads we've been seeing) we could get a nice little upside surprise for the pile on bears that have recently rented space in Red Dye. It's gotta happen with leadership (financials/semis), strong breadth and volume for most to be a believer, I know, but one step at a time cookie.
With that, the critters arrived back at their new digs and filed into the office. Collins, bags under his eyes and all, lept to his feet and embraced Daisy for a long, firm hug. I can't imagine Hoofy was too pleased but I gave him a look and he let the kid get his cheap thrills. He knew, as did I, that the Thursday fray was about to begin and he would need all the energy he could muster.
Good luck today.
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