By Todd Harrison Aug 05, 2003 2:51 pm
Fare ye well!
For long you live and high you'll fly
And smiles you'll give and tears you'll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
The slinky Minx continues to sink as Hoofy anxiously awaits word from Senor Snapper. Indeed, after yesterday's equity enema, critters of all shapes and sizes have learned to fear the turtle. That's kept the bears and bay and caused the bulls to stay, confident that another rally will soon save the day. Hey, it'll work until it doesn't...but when it doesn't, it's gonna be one fugly freak show.
Monsieur Chambo will take center stage tonight, and his Cisco soliloquy will set tomorrow's tone. While the bar of expectation is set rather high, he typically tries to put a positive spin on the state of his nation. A few thoughts in that regard. First, there's been a subtle shift of late and good news has been met with supply (see this morning's economic data). Second, pay particular attention to the composition of the earnings and differentiate between what's "Cisco specific" vs. true end demand. Third, understand that there are a ton of crosscurrents in play (ie-bonds) and one company does not a market make.
I've been operating under the assumption that some meaty downside is a matter of time but, thus far, the dips have only been vegetarian. That may again prove to be the case but if you're gonna dance with Hoofy, you should (at the very least) respect the caveats. Aside from the sentiment shift (selling good news), there are internal affairs that warrant respect and structural crosscurrents we didn't expect. I can't tell you if (when) the backup in rates will trigger more allocation (out of stocks) but I can tell you that perception is starting to get a bit louder.
Am I being a chicken Toddo? Maybe--nobody is smarter than the market and I'm humble enough to know that the onus is on me to adapt. Still, with the Minx eyeballing the lower end of the recent range, we should remain on our toes and have a game plan ready for any scenario. This game ain't easy, my friends, and the weeding out process has many years to go.
More importantly, I urge you to take the time and let those closest to you know how you feel. Yesterday's chilling news served as (yet another) reminder of the fragility and finality of life. The effort needed to pick up the phone...or get in your car...or write a note...is minimal. The desired effect it may have on those you love, however, is immeasurable.
Have a peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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