Tears from Heaven
We wouldn't trade our friendship for the world!
Good morning and welcome back to the puzzling piñata. After yesterday's whippy trip with the Minyanship, the critters trudged through the puddles for a post-close huddle. As the rain wept from the crying sky, they discussed the tape and the break out tries. This game is far from easy, they thought, and some new perspective is what they sought. Man I wishing I could stop this rhyme, and you know I will....if I could find the time.
Snapper: I snapped as hard as I could, fellas, but I couldn't get us over the 50-day moving average in the S&P (986) or BKX (874). With everyone watching those zones, I really wanted to put that feather in my rally cap. Sorry if I letcha down...
Hoofy: Dude, are you kidding me? That was an awesome display of snappage on your part! If they didn't fear the turtle before, they surely do now.
Boo: (dripping wet) I'm not gonna tell you that I'm thrilled will my chill--but lest we forget, there were two losers for every winner yesterday. In other words, the style may have brought a smile but the internal substance never confirmed.
Daisy: There ya go again, looking at the cracks in the sidewalk while missing the beautiful view. When are you gonna stop pulling your hair out and join the party? Look at yourself, Boo--you look like you've gotten a full body Brazilian bikini wax!
Hoofy: Yeah, and I'll tell ya something else. The anxiety created by the failed rally last week is exactly the fuel we need to succeed. After Sir Chambo serves up his quarterly shpiel, we'll enter the post-earnings quiet period. You remember what happened last post-earnings quiet period, don't you bro? You got the treadmark mohawk!
Sammy: Easy now, Hoofs, it's a little early to be celebrating. By most accounts, we're at the exact same levels we've been at for the last two months. And as we've been discussing, this is either a healthy basing (before a resumption of the rally) or the churning that precedes a hearty slippage. I know I'm being redundant, I know I'm being redundant, but the truth is that nothing has changed. Man, it must suck to be a financial columnist these days!
Boo: That's not true, Sammy, a LOT has changed. For one, the bears I speak with are tired of fighting it and have moved to the sidelines. That, coupled with the complacency and optimism, are hallmarks of a trading top. Oh yeah, one more thing...it's already August and, for the third straight year, everyone's pinning their hopes on the famed second half recovery. With this much good news baked into prices, end demand is in demand!
Sammy: There will be reasons assigned whichever way the market chimes. If we rally, everyone will point to the "improving" economy, healthy basing, performance anxiety and leading nature of the financial markets. If we fail, the sentiment, valuations, complacency and deteriorating internals will seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Even the bond action is open to interpretation. The bulls think that the bond weakness is a natural by product a recovery phase. The bears, meanwhile, think that equities will soon follow a similar script and investors will suffer from Boo ja vu!
At that moment, Toddo walked up to the crew with a pained expression on his face.
Hoofy: What's a matter, Toddo, tough day on the dance floor?
Toddo: (somber and scanning their faces) I just received word that my friend Angie was killed in a car crash. She was, by all accounts, a bright spirit with a shining soul who lit up a room the moment she entered it. Why is it that the more delicate the flower, the shorter the life span? 35 years young...what a shame. (taking a moment to let it sink in) I don't mean to bring you guys down but things like this are a part of life and, all too often, perspective is gained as a function of death. As you consume yourself with the future path of flickering ticks, take a moment to realize the bigger picture. It can all be taken away from us just like that.
There was a long silence as the rain poured down and, all of a sudden, the tears from above made perfect sense. The critters looked at each other with a newfound appreciation, the type of affection that is often overlooked in the day to day grind. There would be plenty of time to focus on the next best trade but, for the rest of the night, they enjoyed the comforts of friendship. For they knew that, above all else, that time was the most precious of commodities.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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