Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Edge Lower
Your daily Buzz highlights...
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:18 PM
- "Toddo- The SPX made a new recovery high this morning outside their Upper Bollinger Band and unless we get a big last hour rally, will close back well within the bands - usually an "exhaustion move" sign." Minyan C-Bow
- Note JP Morgan, which has been en fuego, quickly dippin' a deuce. The rest of the banks hang tough (BKX and XBD are green) but this pup got heavy in a hurry.
- In the last four minutes, I've been hit up by three separate technicians with three separate approaches (candlesticks, outside down day, etc) all opining that today's action is uber-bearish. Technicals are but one of our four primary metrics but I wanted to share for those who care.
- I'm just a Pomboy, I get no sympathy! Minyan Mountaineers will be treated to the kind vibes of Miss Stephanie Pomboy on the Saturday Macro Panel. For those unfamiliar with her work, you can get a sniff here. She's quite good!
- I've shaved both sides of my (already tight) book as I ready to gather the critters and herd 'em in the hills.
- What is it about Neil Young that makes me think of MIM?
- Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and have a most excellent close!
Position in JPM
Well it certainly didn't take long for good news to be bad news........ - Bennet Sedacca - 2:34 PM
But there is much left to the day. I stand by my call of no rate hikes. Personally I think the next move, as I have said , is a rate CUT. They already went too far in my book, but what do I lknow?
I notice the BKX is still green so there is hope I imagine, but a lot of folks are getting hurt from this morning's move. Bonds hold their bid, which is no surprise, and the homies reversed.
There are really only two things I am sure of. Volatility will increase (get used to days like this) and I think yields keep falling as the data points come in.
And if you see someone in the Colorado or Frying Pan Rivers on Monday through Wednesday next week, it's gonna be me. So probably no commentary 'til Thursday, but I'm looking forward to meeting lots of new friends in Vail at MIM3. See you there!
Oversold? - Kevin Depew - 10:46 AM
A little bit ago, someone on television said this market is oversold. Is it? Using the S&P 500 let's compare some of the PnF indicators today to July 14. On July 14 the SPX registered a DeMark TD-Sequential buy signal. The SPX on Monday registered a TD-Sequential sell setup.
July 14, 2006: S&P 500 Bullish Percent 54%.
August 4, 2006: S&P 500 Bullish Percent 48%.
July 14, 2006: % of SPX stocks above 50-day moving average 30%.
August 4, 2006: % of SPX stocks above 50-day moving average 58%.
This does not mean the SPX cannot rally, obviously, but by these measures the SPX is certainly not oversold.
Much ado about nothing... - John Succo - 9:18 AM
As everyone stares at the employment number I ask why? Maybe inductive reasoning.
As I mentioned, 71% of all new jobs this year are accounted for in the birth death adjustment. So all we have to do is decipher the birth death adjustment to see what is really going on. So exactly what is it?
We don't know.
The BLS will not allow anyone, ANYONE, to see how they calculate this number.
So everyone clamors over a number that gives us no real information and only has meaning because other people attach meaning to it.
Meanwhile, housing is looking weaker and weaker and housing really is driving almost all economic activity...at least it has in the recent past. And housing is rolling over with rates here even if the Fed pauses.
CME: Watch the Double-Top at $505 - Brian Gilmartin - 9:02 AM
As my fellow Chicagoan, Jon Doctor J Najarian, noted below, last night Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was added to the S&P 500.
The stock is currently up $28 in pre-market trading.
The key technical level is the double-top at $504-$507, from the April 28th and July 5th tops.
CME's July volume report earlier this week was very good with 41% y/y growth in contract volume, and the CME 2Q '06 earnings report saw upward earnings and revenue revisions consistent with historical revisions, thus the fundamental story remains intact for CME, albeit with a lofty valuation.
Most of the exchanges have put up good 2Q '06 and July volume numbers thus we are watching the group given its leadership tendencies, and CME remains the best of the bunch.
The key now is technicals: watch the former highs and volume for a potential breakout.
Position in CME, NDAQ
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:04 AM
Apple (AAPL) Computer To Revise Profits Back To 2002 – Ahem, this is not good news. Without providing specifics, the Cupertino, Calif.-based maker of Macintosh computers and iPod music players said it had uncovered enough evidence of mishandled stock options to raise doubts about the accuracy of financial statements dating back to Sept. 29, 2002. Although I didn't see shares trading on my systems, I did pick up trades overseas down between 7 – 9%.
Toyota's Net Profit Up 39% - Toyota Motor (TM), Japan's largest automaker, said net income during the April-June quarter rose 39% as increasingly mileage-sensitive North American consumers flocked to the brand. The company said that net profit rose to a record $3.23 billion. Hubba hubba.
British Air Profits Up, Guidance Cautious – BA, the 3rd largest airline in Europe , lifted revenue outlook for the year after posting a 72% improvement in quarterly profit. But a cautious outlook on costs and a warning of a tougher second half ahead had investors nervous.
Position in AAPL
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