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Random Thoughts


Lest you have any doubts, the whole "softer economy" theme that is the current bovine passion will one day become its plight.

  • Keep an eye on those pesky piggies, Minyans, as the banks flirt with all-time highs (BKX 113.75). You don't have to agree with it (I don't), but you better respect it. If they fail, technicians will point to a double top. Mount, and it'll be one of the stronger feathers in Hoofy's headdress.

  • I wanted to put my best foot forward before heading to the hills and offered that my gut, as it stood at 10:20, was for the (hard) probe to hold and the tape to rally. Why did I think that? Breadth (4:1 positive), the dollar (-60 bips), leadership (financials), an ability to absorb bad news (Hovanian) and levels (S&P 1280 and NDX 1510) underfoot. That doesn't mean it was--or is going to be--right, I just wanted to share the "eyes" that perceived the aligned ducks.

  • Hey you, who are going to the hills getting set for all the thrills are you drink.....

  • There's now a one in five chance that the FOMC ups rates August 8th (according to Fed Fund Futures).

  • Check out Scotto's latest vibe, which was germinated during our Succofest Wednesday. I'm tellin' ya, I really gotta start filming our Wednesday night noodles. It's Reality Financial Television with a soul!

  • As for Hovnanian (HOV) messing the bed, remember that the reaction to news (HGX +2%) is more important than news itself.

  • "You can pretty much milk anything with nipples."

  • And yes, I think THIS is the reflective "pause" rally. I don't know what kinda juice Hoofy will have when the news--or lack thereof--arrives but if we continue to lift into the meeting, I think it's a sale.

  • Lest you have any doubts, the whole "softer economy" theme that is the current bovine passion will one day become its plight.

  • Remember when we talked about patience, Goldman Sachs and $158? We're almost there, Mon Frere.

  • Lost in the morning sauce, the Russian Central Bank raised rates fitty bips.

  • Debbies that have started to be a Downer? The energy patch, the pharma space and a spate of consumers.

  • MVHQ was out in force last night as we watched our own Charlie Mangano and his Rolling Bones rock the Red Lion. What did we learn? Very simple--Laurie McGuirk cannot sing and intern Nick should not dance.

  • Clint Eastwood or Gene Hackman?

  • According to Reuters, PIMCO's Bill Gross said he believes the FOMC will definitely not raise rates at next week's meeting, and feels the statement will contain strong language to manage inflation concern.

  • "I have nipples Greg, can you milk me?

  • With this post, please know that I'll be out of pocket next week as I ready for the massive mountain minglefest. I'll try to write a recap--as we did from the Butte and on the heels of Ojai--but my time between now and then will be reserved for A) thinking about something smart to say, B) making sure ye faithful has fun, C) beating Succo in softball and D) trying to be mindful of the fact that the purpose of the journey is the journey itself. If you're one of the 230ish Minyans who are joining us in Vail, get jacked (and remember to HYDRATE!). If not, have a most excellent week and I'll see you next Tuesday!

  • R.P.
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