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Morning Dew


There's a difference between net worth and self-worth...

  • I was out-of-pocket for the better part of yesterday and didn't see the settled dusk until after the market closed. What stood out? A few of the elements we chewed through Thursday morning, including the retail Snapper, the homie traction and an underlying bid that may persist through a potential non-event August 8th.

  • What else stood out? S&P 1280 and NDX 1510, among levels, as well as HGX 202 (back under my homie's toe) and the brokers, which are now back above double secret support (XBD 208-210).

  • Where the heck is Beeks? This morning's soft payroll report is further proof in the rate pause pudding. I offered, while climbing over the Hump, that my best guess was a rally into (and potentially through) the August 8th FOMC and then traders would sell "no news." That's still my gut, although, given the fact that I'm leaving for MIM3 shortly, that's likely where it'll remain.

  • Speaking of which, on the heels of a rather snazzy double major meld yesterday, I'm gearing up the critters for our caravan west. I'll be in the hood for the better part of the session (and will likely remove the trading portion of my upside (metal) rentals before I go.

  • Trading tells today include the US dollar (-40 bips), the financials (as they go, so goes the tape), homies (heavy thus far), energy and metal (leadership of tomorrow) and our levels (S&P 1280-1300).

  • "What the hell are you doing in the bathroom day and night? Why don't you get out of there and give someone else a chance?" Igor, Young Frankenstein

  • Speaking of the financials, I've been thinking of late about 2003. Not in a bad way--although it certainly wasn't easy--but in a "the only difference between mistakes and lessons is an ability to learn from them" way. What did I learn in '03? Well, that you can't do everything all the time, there's a difference between net worth and self-worth and that the financials speak volumes when they trade so dry. That was THE tell in '03 (one that I chose to ignore) and it's something I'm eyeing as I fit together the pieces of a most minxy puzzle.

  • It's hard to believe that MIM3 is next week. When I think about how this event has evolved--Collins trekking through Monarch Pass, the eighty folks in Crested Butte, 175 people enjoying the Ojai Adventure and now, 230 to 250 Minyans readying for a massive mountain migration. It's really quite amazing when you think about it and it's a testament to YOU and everyone else who comprises our community.

  • Speaking of which, in one of my melds yesterday, I was speaking with a gentleman who was telling me about the monster size of his organization relative to Minyanville. I opined that there's a huge difference between customers and community. Alotta folks use "community" as a buzz word as it's been a hip shtick for a bit. But it's not lip service--a community, particularly a self-regulating community such as Minyanville, is a state of mind and a way of being. Lotsa folks don't "get" that but that's alright...they will.

  • Good luck Minyans--let's end this week with a smile on our puss and some jingle in our jeans.

  • R.P.
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Positions in metals and financials
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