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Random Thoughts


I think September could be a wild month and my humble sense is that there's a disconnect between perception and reality.

  • Are you smoking Quack? Minyanville is, and we're very proud to do so! I personally guaranteed a "five handle" before the weekend on this morning's Buzz and, true to Minyan form, we've already topped that. You should all be very proud.

  • The Goldcorp-Glamis deal is entirely consistent with the themes we discussed in January. I wasn't "there" but I sincerely hope some Minyans are. The XAU (1.5%) is the top sector performer today. GLG (+20%) is 6% of the index while GG (-8%) is 8% of the index.

  • Ewwww, Gross! Oh, not like that. Bill Gross. He's a good read.

  • Iran. Iran so far away? We knew they weren't gonna stop with their nuclear ambitions. The question now becomes one of relative risk in the region. Not good, any way you slice it and, dollars to donuts, if we slip today, that'll be the reason assigned to the downside rhyme.

  • The CRB, after hanging in Matador City earlier, has slipped back down into Red Dye Junction. The longer it "hangs" below the trendline, the more likely it becomes that it's a "churn" rather than a "base."

  • Wanna see another churn? Look at the trannies between TRAN 4200 and 4400 (resistance).

  • "Personal spending rose 0.8% yet personal income only rose 0.5%. That is a negative savings rate of -0.3% for the month. That equates to an annualized negative savings rate of -3.6%. We can say that the consumer continues to borrow to spend last month. That is quite different than saying the consumer is alive and well." John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • As it stands, my current risk profile is balanced (deltas) and I'm keeping a slew of gamma on (it's cheap enough that I can justify it). I think September could be a wild month and my humble sense is that there's a disconnect between perception (VXO) and reality.

  • Can we soften today? Sure, and I'm watching market internals (still 3:2 positive) and the piggies for signs of slippage in that regard. I'm also gonna eye the Russell as a tell, as the small caps typically hold broader clues to the fuse.

  • Minyan Michele Kellner will showcase her photographic wares next Thursday, September 7th and we invite all Minyans to join us in supporting her efforts. A portion of all proceeds from her sales will benefit a most worthy charity!

  • In the 1400's a law was set forth in that a man was allowed to beat his wife with a stick no thicker than his thumb. Hence we have "the rule of thumb."

  • Yo Homie! The HGX continues to tickle (but not yet breach) the top end of the recent pennant formation.

  • I'm gonna practice what I preach and attempt to shed the hypocrisy (work to live?) this weekend. As such, I'll be out of the 'Ville tomorrow and Tuesday as I take my bride-to-be to for some surf school. I'm not sure we're gonna get much surfing in but it's the thought that counts, right? Either way, I wanna wish ye faithful a fruitful few sessions and I'll be back in the saddle on Wednesday morning. May peace be with you.


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position in financials, Russell, metals
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