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Not Fade Away


Fare ye well into the bell!


Little sleepy boy, do you know what time it is?
Well the hour of your bedtime's long been past
And though I know you're fighting it
I can tell when you rub your eyes that you're fading fast

(Paul Simon)

The afternoon action has found itself traction and all eyes now look for the ursine reaction. Boo's crew had the tape dead to rights as the economic data was soft (and softer), Mother Morgan drop kicked Intel (INTC:NASD) and the critters were jittery into the RNC. Still, the Red Dye try couldn't deliver the knock-out punch and Snapper was only too happy to climb through the crevice.

The story on the floor is that traders are "fronting" month end flow but that could very well be post-rationalization. The wire-to-wire positive S&P breadth and consistently firm financials were Hoofy's hallmarks today and provided the branch on the side of the cliff. Traders are now left to ponder the "what ifs?" associated with the rest of this waif-like week. For instance, what if Intel isn't an outright disaster, the RNC is "uneventful" and the data on Friday comes in benign? All of these must be respected, my friends, as does the simple fact that Dubya would like nothing more than a nice ramp into his big day.

I offer this bullish bent against the backdrop of my oft stated concerns. I always try to punch holes in my own thesis as it allows me to look at the other side of each trade. We all know the bear case--or, at least I hope you do by now--but the bulls are trying to dance between the elephants and recapture the technical metric. If they can hit the tri-fecta and skirt the canyon, the collective sigh of relief may blow the bears all the way back to Matador City.

One step at a time, I suppose, as we fit the pieces into the minxy puzzle. If you're trying to squeeze profits from a stone, perhaps it would behoove you to take a step back and enjoy the extended weekend. When I'm not seeing the ball--and it happens to everyone--I've found that flattening out and removing your positioned bias is the best way to regain perspective. Remember, Minyans, discipline and consistency are the common denominators of any successful strategy.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

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