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Mid-Quarter....2/3 Year


With 2/3 of the year complete, let's put the year's action in perspective.


As we approach Intel's (INTC: NASD) mid-quarter update, I wanted to highlight the dates of their earning release and quarterly update for the last two quarters. Recent reaction to the news has been negative (see chart).

As well, today marks the end of August and with it the 2/3 point of the trading year. So I thought it worth at least a cursory review of the 2004 SP futures chart and a brief mention of the good / bad (from a chart perspective).

  • Positives: The SP formed three lows with exactly the same pattern. Can you form a triple bottom in behavior? Despite a new yearly low for the SP in the month of August, the all-important BKX index made a divergingly higher low and has since posted a three month high.
  • Negatives: The SP has made three distinctly lower highs and lower lows. This is the very definition of a downtrend. The SOX is down more than 25% on the year and overall fundies are less than certain.
  • Reality: The SP made a high +4.5% on the year, a low -4.5% on the year, and is currently down less than 1%. The market has yet to force anyone to show their hand.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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