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Random Thoughts


...good traders know how to make money and great traders know how to take a loss.

  • Discipline over conviction, Minyans, that's what I always say. And while the jury remains out on the next leg for the tape, I slipped two legs into the fur a few weeks ago (50% conviction on the short side) with defined risk above S&P 1306 (my entry level was S&P 1300ish). That "stop" triggered this morning and I humbly removed that (sweaty, sticky) bear costume.

  • Please note that, as a function of my desire to hold some gamma (at these levels of volatility), I've simply balanced my deltas (directional risk) rather than covering up and flattening out. With the tape getting thinner (and Leo getting larger), I'm not opposed to this approach. I simply wish that I pulled that trigger at, say, S&P 1280 so ye faithful could see a better foot on my part.

  • I've always said that good traders know how to make money and great traders know how to take a loss. I'm far from a "great" trader but it's an apt thought to collectively noodle.

  • "There is no noise. Everything has meaning. It's just that we dismiss anything we don't get. The market is often a more subtle signifier than we are attuned to. WE see that the greatest risk to the market is not the unknown (we have had some of that) but the known." Woody Dorsey on today's Buzz

  • What the heck is delta neutral, positive gamma? A new sorority? The name of Billy Meehan's hotel in Mykonos? Nah, it's option stuff and if you wanna educate yourself, take a gander at Professor Succo's tutorial. It's sharp stuff.

  • 100 years of pictures? That would be, like, 100,000 words if I'm doing my math properly.

  • The opposite of liquidity is volatility. We "see" that when we try to buy stocks in a thin tape and, on the other side, we've lived that in the low volatility, liquidity driven market these past few years.

  • No wonder I got such a great deal on Costa Rica Surf School this weekend! Hey, I'll be with my woman as we celebrate her big 3-0. It could be a lot worse.

  • The CRB continues to bend (-90 bips) despite the jig in the metals. Nat gas is off another 6%, chuga is down 3%, nickle is fickle (-3%) and other energy elements are weighing on the fray.

  • Conventional wisdom is still looking for lower energy to be a net positive for the tape. As I've written in Minyanville, and as I'll share on CNBC today at 3:20ish EST, that isn't necessarily true.

  • Duck, Duck, Goose? The Minyanville drive to support the Special Olympics is in full thrust as our community sits atop the Quack Count Leader Board.

  • "I am looking forward to Friday's COT data to see if Commercials unwound any more of their net short position. My gut says crude finds a bottom around $68ish, but I plan to let the data prove it to me as I'd like to see Commercials go flat (or even long) crude futures." Adam Michael on today's Buzz

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...


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